oaks

don't think this is the strongest renewal of a classic that is never that strong but this is as wide open an oaks as i can remember. the race revolves around whether desert flower stays 1m4f in rain softened ground or whether she will prove as effective away from newmarket and i'm not entirely convinced of either. to give her credit, she has always done her best work when meeting the rising ground over 1m but she has always been well positioned at a track that rewards well positioned horses. she's a nicely balanced horse and coming out of stall one she is likely to get a desired prominent position once again so while there are questions she has the tools and draw that give her the best hope to provide answers. there are enough doubts for me to look elsewhere although those doubts are quite clearly built in to her price. 2.6x isn't a bad number and i wouldn't be laying her but there is some very solid each way value with elite upside given the relatively short priced favourite's range of outcomes. 

aidan o'brien has a deep hand although i don't believe it to be all that strong. personally i think ryan moore has chosen the third best horse (of three) in minnie hauk. she's fairly inexperienced but chester can teach a young horse a lot and she won well enough. that form, however, is extremely weak and she didn't look entirely at home on the idiosyncratic track round the bend before coming back on the bridle at the top of the straight. she's obviously at least a somewhat talented work in progress that is going to keep on improving but second fav in an oaks when she is nowhere near the finished product is a stretch. she's a big old cunt and given how she handled the turn at chester i have some concerns about her ability to handle the track. 

giselle a very similar type of horse, big fucker racing on a tight track but she looked more at home around lingfield than minnie did at chester so it was a good prep run. a three runner field with two absolute no hopers not ideal but she quickened up very smartly against the rail and won as she liked. a strong headed individual she will need to do a much better job at settling if she's to win this and it's a concern that the first time hood didn't do much of a job settling her down but it was a small field with little pace and there should be a better gallop to aim at here. the market has been very positive on her throughout her career so i would be certain the stable believe there is a lot more to come from her and she has taken some money overnight. she's a lively each way contender with real win upside but if i were betting her i would likely bet her win only at ~9/1 because i am worried that she will get too worked up and be too keen early. have taken some win tricast combos in my desire to take on desert flower and minnie hauk and she is in those. 

the market strongly disagrees but i had whirl as the best bet of the o'brien horses and i've chased this price all the way up because my ego is so big and dumb that i think i just know better when clearly i don't so it will cost my a few coins when she is out the back of the tv but there's no need to be a pussy in a big race. she doesn't have the upside of her stable mates but she is an experienced racehorse that improved a significant amount for stepping up to 1m2f last time and she once again did all of her best work at the finish. it wasn't the strongest race and i won't pretend there aren't doubts about her ability at this level but i think her level now is very competitive in a race full of promising improvers that haven't proven much to date and i have zero question marks about the race make up either. she has, in my opinion, significantly the most solid profile for this race and a wonderful battling attitude to go with it. would not be at all surprised if there was a horse or two that improved beyond her but there is an incredible amount of value in the place part of an ew bet imo.

revoir would be a surprise winner. she had every chance to go by on seasonal reappearance and just wasn't good enough. potentially inconvenienced by slow pace but she was relatively well positioned herself. went off 10/1 in a listed race that day and is now 10/1 in a deep enough g1. should improve, ground won't be an issue but that price is certainly tight enough to consider. 

elwateen flattered by her run in the guineas but it was a seasonal debut in a strong race having only ever seen the racetrack once before so she can be expected to improve with the step up in trip likely to suit. one of the more unknown types. i don't have much opinion about her other than i think she has to find quite a lot. could though.

taken some each way bets on wemightakedlongway at 16/1 and she's also going in the tricast combos. she got a soft enough lead when winning a fairly weak race full of inexperienced horses the last day but the second looks like a real nice type and she ran away from her the further they went and she should really benefit from this type of test up in trip. she's not ideally drawn for a horse that likely wants to be prominent but there isn't a confirmed front runner in here at this trip and she is one of the more likely to press forward so she has a live chance to go and dictate this raceif she can get across early from a not inconceivable post. the return run against the boys was a very solid run and i think she has plenty of ability. 

gold cup

galopin wins and i think this may be his weakest assignment yet in the gold cup. the ground is the only question but reports suggest it's a little on the softer side and if that is the case he's very hard to beat. i hope he doesn't win though because i had a good antepost double at 5/1 with state man at bad prices. 

banbridge wasn't certain to stay the king george trip and he overcame a good pace to go and win there but there is an enormous difference between 3m at kempton and 3m2f on the new course here and i very much struggle to believe this horse stays well enough to trouble galopin. the form of that king george isn't all that strong and he looks much too short to me. easy to be against, probably look to take him on with a match bet or two if i can find and get down.

inothewayurthinkin, monty's star and corbett's cross all look through stayers and they are all likely players coming up the hill but i'm surprised that corbett's cross is the least likely of these to win and i've bet him ew at bigger prices than are still available (trumpet) but i think the 14/1 is still a very fair bet. he's posted the best performance of any horse not named galopin des champs over a staying trip (3m at kempton doesn't count) and he's massively overlooked in a not very deep race. inothewayurthinkin is a nice type but his form is a much lower level than this and he's been relatively comfortably held stepping up to this grade this year. banbridge place lay, corbett's cross ew 14/1+, 6/1 without GDC. 

albert bartlett

i generally don't like the race, i think it's a bit too much of a test for young horses especially on the new course but this particular renewal is a lovely puzzle to try and solve. lots of consistent form, lots of horses stepping up in trip. this is a bit weaker than a few of these over the last few years which makes it even more intriguing. this is wide open. 

i think the big westerner is a lovely scopey horse and she's done absolutely nothing wrong to date but i can't be backing a mare here despite getting 7lb. the strength needed to go and win this 3m sprint is exceeded by the weight allowance imo and yeah she's a big stamp of a mare and she will certainly get better in time i think this is a bit early for her so i'm happy to be against her as a 5/1 poke. 

jasmin de vaux just isn't that good, they're reaching here and trying yet another new trip. she looks like she might stay and the track should suit with only two hurdles in the last five furlongs given her complete inability to jump. i do think the irish form is generally better so she's not without a chance if she jumps much better and gets he trip but there has been money for her this morning and she's much too short for me to be betting her now. 

happy to be against jet blue and derryhassen paddy as well. the former had stamina to prove last time and looked to have put those doubts to bed staying on well up the hill but that wasn't a strong race and this is a much different test against better horses so i'm still doubtful that he will get up the hill again while derryhassen paddy is a big  lump of a horse and all his form has been on genuine soft ground, have a sneaky feeling that this ground might be a bit lively for him and i am not a fan of beating honky tonk highway off a soft lead round a front runner tracks, needs to improve a fair bit by my reckoning. 

taking wingmen at 11.5. don't particularly like this horse either but his form is very strong and very consistent and there should be more to come up in trip as a horse without much change of gear. he didn't have the class to go and beat final demand the last day over 2m6f but he kept on really well to hold second comfortably from a horse who has form tying in with the current favourite of this race. gordon elliott obviously struggling this week but this one is definitely over priced with more to come. 

wendigo could surprise, got outpaced readily in the challow before staying on. nice big horse and he's going the right way but i'm not a fan of that challow form regardless of the new lion who was clearly just much better than the rest. 

mares chase

have bet dinoblue here at 2.6 and 13/8, actually thought this was quite a good bet but having spoke to a few people since it seems i'm on a bit of an island which is never great but if they're willing to push her out closer to post i am willing to bet her again. she's not a horse i like at all because generally think she is over bet for what she has done on a race course but she is by far the most consistent of these and i strongly believe her peak is a few pound better than them as well. i had her in here at closer to 5/4 so i'm surprised there is not much interest in her. it's probably because she's been beaten at short enough prices three times at the festival but she was quite unlucky last year imo because limerick lace got first run in tough conditions getting 5lb with dino blue closing her down all the way to the line. she didn't do too much in two runs against the boys to start the year but she won nice enough against stablemate allegorie de vassy at naas over 2m giving 6lb (5lb today) and while she arguably had the better of the ground away from the rail i thought she was always in command there running without the help of a rail to guide. 

allegorie de vassy reopposes here on slightly worse terms but i'm not sure that horse is the same horse at cheltenham. she was never involved in this race last year as a well supported 5/2 chance and she was comfortably beaten as a short price fav the year before. the reports suggest she is stronger this year which could help her round this track but she has plenty to prove here. limerick lace much the same, she was a good enough winner last year but she had everything go her way, including the heavy ground which she won't get again, hasn't been the same horse this year and is 3lb worse off. cheek pieces on first time could help find a bit of form but she has a lot to prove now. 

brides hill has put up some exceptional performances at a relatively mild level and i think she's short enough. she beat allegorie de vassy easily last year but that one clearly was off her game and this one should need to improve a fair bit to go and win this. 

county

there are some very strong irish horses running here with obvious claims but dan skelton is a sneaky little weasel and i have a strong suspicion that valgrand is a bit a plot here. the horse won by absolutely blasting from the front in novice hurdles before going off 5/6 in a g2 over 2m5f when he didn't get home and was beaten by a useful horse in potters charm. he dropped back to 2m and in to handicap company his next two starts where he has to carry 12-0 and 11-11 but for no reason whatsoever he's held up out the back when neither race was run at much of an early pace. given that he ran in a 3m ptp, has won over 2m3f and they thought he would stay 2m5f why is he sitting out the back off no pace over 2m when every other run at 2m he's gone off like a bullet? he cruised through the race at cheltenham two starts ago and never once did they try and put him in to the race or pick his whip up, he just let him canter up the hill without a care in the world. everyone around him is trying to chase this run away leader and he's still sat motionless while the race develops around him making up no ground in process. it's magical shithousing. he's dropped 6lb for those two runs, gets to carry a much lighter weight of 10-10 and there is a pretty significant chance that he's not going to be help up again. 12, 12.5 on exchange. 9/1 ew 5 places fine. 

down day yesterday, all losers, lots of big priced runners running well without winning still but you need the luck on a day with a bunch of 20+ runner races. karoline banbou a good fourth, thought she might go close turning in, will the wise cantered through the pertempts before finishing 6th, was 2.9 IR turning for home. heart wood good second in the ryanair but i also laid the winner and masaccio a staying on 3rd in one the latter handicaps. -2.47u betting to win 1u on each yesterday mostly because of the fact to file lay, up 1.7u for the week. nothing too exciting.

triumph

i think the front two are correctly priced. if i was forced to bet one of the two at current numbers i would prefer lulamba but i'm in no rush to be involved with either. east india dock plenty of talent but do think we've seen how good that horse is and i wouldn't expect there to be too much improvement to come and, while they certainly do need to improve, i think there are a few in here who have the scope to improve a significant amount having had one or two runs. lulamba is obviously one of those horses and he has the least to find in theory having won comfortably on debut giving 10lb to the reopposing mondo man but that rival was extremely keen on his hurdles debut and it's tough to finish off a race having been that head strong so i do mark that lulamba performance down a touch. he travelled strongly, jumped very fluently and quickened up nicely when asked though so it was a taking performance none the less. he's got bundles of improvement to come. i'm reminded of burdett road versus sir gino at cheltenham in the colours of these two market leaders with the market favouring the more experienced burdett road that day too.

hello neighbour of obvious interest given how easily he won the last day despite a small margin of victory and the 2nd has come out and run a creditable race off 137 in a handicap this week but i don't love the general feel of that form and i think the hood first time made a huge difference to the way this horse travelled off a slow pace. he almost got run down by lady vega allen in a stiffer test of stamina at the same track a month earlier and i feel that rival may be better suited to this track and likely pace so i've bet her ew at 16/1 four places.

the other i have taken ew is mondo man at 22 and 25/1, would take 20, and while he has a lot to find with lulamba on their running i think he has the scope to be a lot better than he showed that day. he travelled much fresher than you would hope but the pace was slow and he hadn't seen the track for almost 200 days but he was still travelling powerfully jumping the last when he got beat for a bit of speed. was just as keen the next day off another slow pace and he had every chance until he made a mistake two out which put him on the back foot in a grade two before staying on through the line in ground softer than ideal on a track that wouldn't have suited a big powerful horse. the keen going nature is an obvious concern but he's ran in two slowly contested races to date which is unlikely to be the case here so it should help him settle but they've gone for the hood first time today as well which is another positive factor. the way he still manages to finish off his races despite being so keen would suggest he has a huge amount of ability which will only show if they can get him to calm down. it doesn't cost much to find out at this price and his upside is enormous. 

stayers

messy race this, wide open. i like teahupoo but price is fine, some unexposed young stayers in here that hold his price up, ground not quite as soft as he may like though so i'm fine with being against him despite thinking something has to improve a good 10lb to go and beat him. those young stayers include the wallpark who looks a lovely big staying hurdler and certainly looks the most likely danger having proved himself over the trip, track and ground but i was very disappointed with his run in the long walk at ascot, got outpaced and ran on but that was his first try in this grade and he looked in trouble a long way out in a much weaker race than this. he's certainly improving and can make his presence felt in a real stamina test but whether he has the class to go and win this i'm not entirely certain so price is tight enough for me.

the other younger horse with a good chance is lucky place. not proven over this trip but stayed on strongly in both the coral cup over 2m5f when very young as a novice here last year - an incredibly good performance - and in a 2m4f win here in december so there is hope that he will stay. he held off the rallying gowel road the last day giving 6lb and now on level weights it is tough to see gowel road reversing that form but that is the horse i am betting at 25/1 ew, some 28 out there too. he's a thorough, thorough stayer and that 2m4f wouldn't have suited him as much as this will. he's nine now but he seems to have improved a good bit this season now that he's racing exclusively from the front and that should be the tactics today in a race that lacks any real early pace so he has a very fair chance to get a soft enough lead here. he's a very tough horse to pass and there are a lot of question marks about the ability of a lot of these. 

ryanair

competitive. i don't think fact to file is anywhere near as good over 2m4f as he is over 3m and there is enough very strong opposition to be against at shorter than 2/1, have laid at 2.76 for a small bit. think the way he does win this is likely to play out which is why only a small lay because the tactical approach to this race is fairly well known. they're going to blast off and he could just be the one that outstays them up the hill but if they go quick enough i wouldn't be surprised to see him get taken off his feet a little here. winning the john durkan over 2m4f would give people plenty of hope about his speed but he raced against a bunch of 3 mile chasers all running over the wrong trip when most hadn't had a run in 250 days that day and i don't believe he is worthy of this price at this trip. 

jungle boogie and protektorat are better horses racing from the front, especially the former, and while i don't think it's necessarily certain that one or both will put pressure on il est francais, i think they will be doing enough just in behind to keep the leader honest and keep this pace high - not that the french horse needs the encouragement - so this should be run end to end throughout. i'm happy to be against il est francias racing at this speed on this track having only raced around the flat kempton, which makes fencing a touch easier, and over the smaller, easier fences in france. wouldn't be surprised to see him fall at a fence coming down the hill. the mental adjustment to bigger, stiffer fences at greater speeds isn't to be underestimated and for such an assured jumper normally, likely to see a mistake or two creeping in under pressure. 

i would have been all over djelo at the 11 that was available early morning and overnight and the exchanges were liquid enough to get down but i didn't start my prep until later in the morning and by that time he was already under 9 on the exchange which i think is approaching the correct price although maybe still a little light, so a small bet but nothing fancy. the main bet will be on heart wood at 20 now. lovely seven year old, improving all the time but he's kind of between trips so never gets to showcase how good he is. he got outpaced before staying on strongly over 2m4f two starts back and he cantered through a g1 over 3m the last day only to not get home so i think a stiff 2m4f on the new course in a well run race is going to be the most suitable race he's been a part of to date and we can finally see how good this horse really is. he travelled supremely well the last day when behind fact to file but he was bang there with him jumping two out before stamina really kicked in over the last few furlongs. doubt he wins because as i say, this is a really solid g1, but he's worth his chance and i think there is plenty of improvement to come with things in his favour. 16/1 ew nice, 20 exchange nice too.  

pertempts

three in here, big competitive field although i don't think many of the outsiders represent much of a threat except super survivor who i have bet in multiple ways including 33/1 1/5 1-5. he's not getting any younger but he's in the best form of his career as a nine year old and the way he won the last day would suggest there is still a few pound left in the tank. he's not exactly over raced for his age having had just 13 starts under rules, wasting seven of those as a not very accomplished chaser but he's been a revelation since returning to hurdles with the reapplication of cheek pieces, quickening up like a rising staying hurdles the last day. he's 40 something on the exchange, 33/1 ew 1-5 or 25/1 1-6, which ever you prefer i think all are good. would be by far my biggest return of the week so far. 

the other two i'm betting are towards the head of the market. win some lose some almost certainly doesn't want the ground to be slow and there were some reports of tackiness over the first couple of days but we're racing on the new course today so the ground likely to be a bit fresher which gives some added hope that he will handle it. it certainly hasn't looked slow through two days. he quickened up very smartly to win the last day with a strong travelling feet of a dancer back in third but he was value for more than the winning margin, went up 10lb and gets another 3lb from the british handicapper but he's looked like a nice horse for some time and he relished the trip that day, should be plenty more improvement to come. around the 12 mark on the exchange, prefer to bet that than taking shorter ew prices given some doubts about ground. pray for the good variance.

lastly in a similar vein it is will the wise. raced only 18 days ago in a slog which may have taken something out of him but that's built in to the price, cantered through the race that day on his handicap debut and while he had a little trouble getting going to go and win the race once he did he showed a little burst of acceleration to put it away and was also value for more than the margin. he gets a slightly stiffer 11lb and he loses his 5lb claimer from that day making life a bit tougher. he was thought to be a graded horse early in the season but it didn't quite work out over shorter trips but he looked to have improved for 3m and i don't think a mark of 134 gets to the bottom of him now at a trip he enjoys. he's around 13 on the exchange or 11/1 ew with books, both good. personal preference there. 

novices' handicap chase, whatever it's called

very strong race, really competitive. there are a dozen well handicapped horses and any one of them can win so i'm not going to waste a lot of time here going through them runner by runner. i think moon d'orange is still well ahead of his mark and while you would be concerned about the way he won the last day, being out the back the whole way before clearing through the field up the straight and winning in a photo after a huge mistake at the last, that means he only gets a 6lb rise when clearly he was a lot better than the field that day and would have won by lengths if continuing forward momentum from the back of the final flight. sean bowen up again and he'll need to stay more in touch this day to be involved in a more competitive event but he's still only a 7yo with only five chase starts under his belt and he is improving rapidly. 14/1. 

day two much less profitable, +0.77u betting to win 1u on each. +4.14 for the event. day three is a shit show, enormous fields and very competitive racing throughout the day. relying on the good variance to make money today even if the bets are good.

mares' novices

sixandahalf obviously an impressive winner on hurdles debut the last day but i'm not entirely convinced by that run. was well supported close to the off and won as she liked but it was a bit of a nothing race with five horses well clear throughout despite a relatively sedate pace and the one flat bred horse unsurprisingly had the most speed up the straight, wasn't in love with the way she pulled clear either, it was a bit laboured with the second horse clearly slowing down at a significant rate to make the winning margin a bit wider. everything that has run since has lost in bad races and i could not possibly by getting involved with this horse as a favourite. she's obviously open to bundles of improvement on only her second hurdles start but this is a 24 runner race full of more experienced horses and this is going to be completely different test because while she won a 14 runner race that day there was only ever a small group clear and it wouldn't have felt like a big field. big field experience on the flat not quite the same as big field experience jumping hurdles at a good pace. a lot of doubts but based on flat ability she is clearly talented. 

also going to be against the other flat horse here in galileo dame. two very solid runs over hurdles, once when beaten by wendrock and once when 2nd in a g1, reversing form with wendrock, but has never raced outside of her own age group over jumps and her jumping is sketchy at best. she is getting weight from all, she stays strongly and on paper she has posted one of the best bits of form but i can't get there at the prices because i think the market is undervaluing how tough it can be for a four year old against older horses on a stiff track like this. 

jubilee alpha has been impressive in her recent starts and she looked up to this level when flying home after some trouble in a g2 at aintree in a bumper at the back end of last year behind the reopposing diva luna - likely improved past that one - but i'm concerned about her on this track. has never raced on anything other than a sharp, flat track and she has been cantering through races and winning through pure speed. this kind of thinking lead me to move away from the new lion earlier in the week so potentially just think too little of strong form on flat tracks but she's not the biggest horse so i'm fine with passing her over against some talented stronger horses with more scope for improvement. 

the first of two i've taken here is karoline banbou at 13/13.5, would bet that down to about 8 so a fairly strong bet, because i loved the way she made up ground around the top bend on her irish debut. she did nothing wrong on her second start when winning a weak race in a canter but the way she quickened very smartly in to the lead that first day in a good race before getting tired after was that of an extremely smart horse. her french form as a 3yo gives her the experience necessary to navigate a race of this nature. think she's a really smart mare. 

i give credit to sbc_josh on the bird app for pointing her out to me last night at bigger prices but bluey is still worth betting at 20/1+ here. she's a lovely, big, strapping mare that has taken plenty of time and racing to come good but she's improving quickly now and will be well suited to more of a galloping test than she has encountered recently, including when behind jubilee alpha on 3lb worse terms. on the face of it you would think that form is going to be tough to reverse but given how big and slow to develop she has been as well as the vastly different track i think there is every reason to believe she has a good chance to improve beyond that one now. karoline the much bigger bet but i do think bluey is a very fair price. 

champion chase

jonbon has improved this year, and his jumping has also improved, but i think that improvement has come as a result of making his own running and getting a clear sight of fences which i don't think he will get today. there's plenty of early pace here and i am concerned that jonbon, who historically has made errors at this track, will find jumping to be a bit of an issue again when things don't go his way. clearly the best horse at his best but the overwhelming feeling is that he won't be at his best so i'm looking elsewhere at the prices.

i've landed quite emphatically on marine nationale at 7 on the exchange. i'm strongly of the opinion that a strong run, stiff 2m is exactly what this horse wants. he's been staying 2m on flat tracks well enough over the last 12 months with his one run away from leopardstown since the supreme win is 2023 coming at naas on first run of the season when he travelled supremely well, hit two out and got tired behind a horse that had a soft lead. he still has to improve on everything he's shown on the race course but i do really believe that this track and the way the race will be run will suit him exceptionally well. 

the pace will come from solness and quilixios to a lesser extent and while solness has excelled in this role recently, he's been doing so on a lovely flat galloping track where it can be very difficult to make up ground and i think he's rather flattered as a result. energumene is beyond his best now and found a fifty is a strong travelling sort that could be suited by the pace here but he's a much better horse going right handed. strong bet here. 

xc

pretty tough to find an edge here imo. they all race against each other all the time. stumptown has improved significantly in the last year and obviously the only time i got a bet on him he got slammed in to by a loose horse and unseated. he did it cosily the last day but the small suspicion i have is that he doesn't want to be in front too early so while an 8lb rise might not look too steep on the face of it, i do think it is more than enough to pass him over here. mister coffey, who i bet in that race, flashed ability without winning for the 374th time and he's taken money through the day and is now at a point where i don't want to chase him off the cliff but he's not without hope. he got outpaced at the top of the hill the last day when the front three kicked for home and if he can stay in touch he'll be coming home faster than many.

galvin is a nice type, he's ran well in this and the grand national previously but he's getting on a fair bit now but he's only racing sporadically these days in anticipation of these 'big' races. he looks fairly treated on his best form and he doesn't have to carry top weight with stumptown's improvement so there is a lot in his favour but he's priced roughly correctly imo. think he's a better horse on good ground though so every chance. 

if there is anything that could improve here it's the goffer and i have bet him at 11/11.5. he's still only eight but he's struggled for a couple of years now and he has a tendency to give it up but his mark has adjusted quite impactfully as a result. he didn't do much to encourage a big result here when staying on behind stumptown but that was the first time he's ever seen a course like this and he was planted out the back the whole way which didn't give him much hope. this is the type of horse that sean bowen does a masterful job with so his booking is a big positive. i don't think it's a big edge, he's the type of horse that could be running without a chance after a mile but he's extremely well treated, carrying no weight and has the perfect jockey on board. 

coral cup

be aware very short. young horse that is improving through experience having run in some deep handicaps at the back end of last year and gets in here with a lovely racing weight but the market is paying an enormous amount of respect to a dan skelton horse in a handicap given how the last few years have played out in this race for him. he flies home over 2m in big fields but i don't really believe that means he will be suited by an extra 5f. has tried this trip before when getting beat by a nice enough horse in kamsinas but that was a bit of a sprint on a flat track as well so i think the trip is a big question mark for a horse that is 4/1 in a 25 runner race.

a wide open race as you would expect so i'm taking three here and still a big fav to lose. i was very impressed with the way impose toi travelled through the newbury win after almost a year off, jumping wasn't as fluent as you would hope but cheekpieces first time can help sharpen that up and there is no doubt in my mind that a 7lb rise doesn't get to the bottom of this horse, taken a fair bit of money with books this morning but price has held firm on the exchange, anything above 9 is good there imo. 

beat the bat is a big, strong horse that has been readily outpaced over 2m in high-end handicaps this season but he finds his feet and grinds his way back through the field each time. he doesn't have much of a gear chance so it's a surprise that he has never raced beyond 2m3f but he's such a big horse it has taken some time to strengthen up and it seems like the perfect time to be going up in trip in favourable conditions. his novice hurdle form was very strong and so is the 2nd he posted in a handicap over 2m3f at haydock in november. down 2lb, carrying a nice light weight. jumping not been superb lately but that's because the trips have been sharp enough for him now he's filled out. lovely bet at 10/1.

lastly i'm taking a chance on sandor clegane. a big weight to carry here but he's a graded horse and it shouldn't be much of an issue. he's travelled supremely well in blinkers in each of his last two runs without getting home over 3m in g1 and g2 races. the drop back in trip in what is likely to be a well run contest should suit him perfectly. 28 on exchange, drifted overnight quite significantly but i'm more than happy to take a discount on a horse i think is being overlooked. 

brown advisory

pretty obvious ballyburn isn't quite as good over fences as he was over hurdles but he's still good, and certainly still good enough to beat this fairly ordinary bunch of chasers but the price is tight enough up in trip for the first time. he was very good at 2m, very good at 2m4f and he is likely to get this trip and while he doesn't necessarily need to improve to beat them i do think there are other horses in here better suited to the trip at a stiff track. he beat croke park over 2m5f in fairly testing conditions, certainly not the offered description of yielding, but he beat him through pure flat speed on a flat track so i wouldn't read too much in to how that line of form translates with common opponents over staying trips. i'm happy to be against at 1.7x.

think better days ahead is a fair bet to reverse that hurdles form with dancing city from the back end of last season. the race was run at no pace and better days ahead cruised in to the lead, got outpaced turning for home and then ran on again late. he's strengthened up a good deal through the summer and improved his form in a couple of graded chases early around christmas and early in the year, probably finding himself out in front much sooner than he wanted to be when almost getting chased down by a horse that will stay 4m in time in stellar story. think there is still a fair bit of improvement to come from this horse in staying chases given how weak he was physically earlier in his career. 10/1 in places, some 9's out there, more of a 6's chance for me. 

gorgeous tom did look like he wanted a bit further when flying home over 2m4f the last day but to my eye he just got outpaced in a slow race and as stayed the trip strongly as he so often does, flattering to deceive in a sense. i'm not sure how much this trip will really benefit him and he needs to improve a stone on everything he's shown to go ahead and win this. quai de bourbon was a well fancied horse in the martin pipe behind better days ahead last year and that race has a tendency to throw up some good stayers for the future but he's still young and inexperienced, didn't look natural in his first two chase starts. there will be big days in his future but i'm not certain he's ready for this right now. 

decent day. four winners, one faller at final flight when 1.04, three places in good handicaps. 

turners

think this is much weaker than it looks on paper. have been a fan of the horse since debut but more than happy to be against the new lion here at the prices. visually probably been the best young horse in training this season but there is nothing enthusiastic about the strength of his form and i am of the opinion that the challow he won, which has fallen apart since, was simply due to being the fastest horse on a flat track off a slow gallop on decent ground and he has a fair bit still to prove at this trip, on a track this stiff, coming off what will likely be a good pace. it's not to say that he can't but there are more than enough doubts about his profile to avoid taking a relatively short price here. 

have taken a bit of final demand at 2.66, think it's good to about 2.5, generally think he has a better profile for this sort of race and is likely to prove better over a bit further in the future, which is preferrable here. i'm not entirely convinced by the level of his form either, but that's the case for pretty much every runner in this race but he was extremely strong and impressive throughout when stepping up to g1 company and this race isn't deep enough to concern me that he won't improve beyond the fairly average level of form of the rest of these. it's not a big bet and it's more because i think this is a terrible race with only one horse having any real upside.

given the openness and general weakness i feel this race has, it's worth looking at the outsiders to potentially make their presence felt and the one that catches my eye the most is supersundae at 50/1 (65 exchange). a fine, big, scopey horse with a lovely big stride and i think they make more use of him here and let him go out try and force a bit of pace. he's been a bit keen being held up in slowly run races so the hood goes on as well. the most interesting thing to me, other than the potential change of tactics, is the support he has taken in graded races the last few starts. he was 8 lengths behind the yellow clay the last day but that one was much closer to the pace and got first run but supersundae made up nice ground and pulled away from the field without ever looking like getting to the winner. i don't think that winner is particularly strong either, just a benefit of circumstances on that day in dire conditions. supersundae pulled up the next day behind a dominant final demand but was reported to have been stiff post race, once again taking good money pre race. there is clearly some confidence this horse is better than he has shown and a change in tactics with a hood going on offers more hope for improvement at a big price than a lot of these can offer. danny mullins takes over from patrick mullins. 

 champion hurdle

i'm betting state man, fully expecting to lose. i think the market is disrespectful of his chances at 13/13.5. he went off odds on the beat brighterdaysahead twice and while he got beat both times, there were valid excuses both times. it's very easy to forgot how easily state man got to her the first time when she was race fit and he wasn't because of how visually impressive the mare was when beating him out of sight the next day but state man made a mess of the last the first day at a time when mullins' horses weren't finishing their races and he got himself beat that day. he was very, very clearly the best horse that day and i don't think that is disputable. the race after which BDA went and won in a canter was a fucking farce and we're judging both horses largely based upon that comical race. it's the only time brighterdaysahead has looked even remotely as good as gordon elliott has always said she is and i am baffled that the market is so adamant that that race is their true level. i don't expect to beat CH, and BDA may well be the horse they always thought she was but this price discrepancy is ridiculous.

constitution hills probably wins and nothing else will matter. i don't have a clue how good that horse is anymore, wasn't impressed by him in either of his two runs this year. the less said about these racecourse gallops the better. price is quite enticing but that's mostly just because i think BDA is a horrific price. 

 mares

the race revolves around the well being of lossiemouth. i would have preferred to have seen her in the champion because i think she was judged too harshly on getting beat by constitution hill on his reappearance when she was clearly not at her best as soon as the flag dropped, maybe she was caught out by the championship pace over 2m but that was a flat, quick track on good ground which is incomparable to what she would have been facing today. the reason she has moved, in my opinions of course, is that the fall the next day took a lot out of her and they were not confident she would be as competitive as she would be at her best. and that concern rolls over in to this market because she's way too big at 1.9x but the fact that she is obviously too big gives me great concern that she is probably much too short because of her current level of well being and while i don't really want to be, i have to be against her.

it's a knock along concern that they have sent lossie here to a race they believe she could still win when the stable have the 2nd fav who would have been a relatively short price if lossie didn't come here. jade de grugy is a horse i've never loved, she is workmanlike and while she bumped in to a couple of obviously good horses in this race last year, the major concern for me is that this is probably a 3m horse racing down in trip because the division at 3m doesn't really exist for mares and she simply isn't good enough to be competitive against the boys. i can't have her here at this price but anything could happen with the real concerns about the big favourite.

i'm very keen to be on july flower at ~10. she was mightily impressive the last day after 260 or so days off the track when cruising by kala conti and i would expect her to improve a fair bit for that run. the henry de bromhead stable was out of form for a while but july flower was kept of the track through that period but that doesn't mean she wasn't impacted by any issues within the stable so it is a slight concern that she hasn't been out for 72 days. despite that concern, i would have her as clear second fav here and much like jango baie it's another no brainer losing bet at 10. 

joyeuse the most interesting runner. cantered home in a competitive newbury handicap, supplemented for this and the way the race shape has unfolded she is very much coming here with a chance. market has been a little cold on her this morning and she has a fair bit to find at the ratings but she is a live one.

 ultima

tactically speaking it's pretty straight forward. it's a 24 runner handicap. there are plenty of established front runners and they will go a decent pace. there is a concern with a couple of those front runners though because both broadway boy and king turgeon both sulked their way through races recently when they couldn't establish an early lead and we might well see a situation here where both fight for the lead early and they go a silly gallop with the likes of myretown also very likely to be pushing forward, this could be badger ales levels of pacey staying chase and somewhat surprisingly that day the pace help up but this is a much stiffer track with a much stiffer jumping test. 

not quite hunt ball levels of improvement from katate dori this season but quickly rising up the ranks. another 12lb to contend with here before dylan johnston takes off three. racing style should be quite well suited by race tactics but while i don't think the 12lb rise necessarily gets to the bottom of his ability, i don't think he's the best jumper and jumping is going to be put under pressure at this pace and that's where the added weight is going to tell. comes quick enough after previous win.

the changing man is improving but ideally wants faster ground. i've always thought of him as a relatively weak finisher but counterintuitively i do believe the way this race will be run will help him get up the hill because i think it's more a lack of gear changes that made him vulnerable so a 3m1f well run race should suit. he's still clearly on a mark he can win off and he's one who should be well positioned throughout to pick off the potential lightening pace so if we get through the first race and the ground isn't too soft, i'll likely be having a second bet on him at ~10 on exchange. i have very few questions about this one.

the one i like a fair bit here is whistle stop tour at 15ish on exchange. he's a bit inexperienced compared to a lot of these but he's improving markedly over 3m on the northern circuit which can go quite unnoticed when it comes to the bigger meetings. obviously the level of competition is lower but it can be tough to compare the form given there is relatively little cross over through the year. he ran a very creditable race when running over 2m4f off a big weight in a very competitive novice chase. he got outpaced in a race where the pace held up but he stayed on all the way to the line and jumped beautifully the whole way, suggesting there was still plenty left in the tank except the pace to be involved. he's up 6lb for staying on strongly to win in ayr the time before and that almost certainly doesn't cover his vast potential carrying a nice low weight of 10-12. the ground coming up a bit softer will suit him but form on slightly faster ground not much of a concern either. 

 arkle

majborough could just be a stone better than these. always looked a chaser, huge engine, hard to beat. but he's young and inexperienced and he's unlikely to have things go his own way like he had in dublin. it was an incredibly impressive performance, beating some well established high class 2m chasers on only his second start as a novice but everything went smoothly and as planned. there were a couple of novicey jumps, continuing to jump left handed as he has throughout his young career but nothing you would be overly concerned about. i want to be against him because he's so young and inexperienced given how differently things have the potential to play out in the race. i certainly believe he is the best horse and i wouldn't be at all surprised if he wins this by 10 on the bridle but there are too many small concerns for me to be getting involved at 1.6x. he's racing against at least two horses that have worse form/ability but are very polished, quick jumpers and that is the way he gets beat. 

i'm not at all impressed with leau du sud. think he's quite exposed for a novice chaser and although the form of his last win reads well enough i thought he looked fairly average the last two starts. beating the two irish horses at sandown was decent but down memory lane hates soft ground and lds looked very laboured and slow coming up that hill - conditions weren't easy, granted, but it was a concerning performance. he didn't do much to inspire the next day as a 1/5 poke either. second has come out and won a g2 of his own in similar dogged fashion since but i am of the opinion that the market is overrating that form somewhat. the ground is starting to come softer than expected and personally i think this 5/1 would be just about correct on good ground but not correct on this likely slower surface.

jango baie very quietly posted one of the best novice chasing debuts of the season when cruising home at cheltenham and jumped beautifully when just touched of by the front running handstands the next day. that type of form isn't going to beat majborough at his best but i loved the way jango travelled through that race and that gives me real confidence this trip over this track will really suit. i would have him as second fav, basically just flipping the prices with l'eau du sud, so it's a pretty easy bet here at 8/1 (although expecting to lose) but the better bet is the 9/4 without majborough. pretty strongly feel he's the second best horse here. 

the once great cheltenham festival, now a watered down shit heap of irish dominance that we can't walk away from. more races, smaller fields. now you actually have to understand the nuances of racing to be able to make good money but the twitter tout morons with three braincells and 5k followers complaining about the death of antepost betting because they're unable to find a 25/1 ew loser in a seven runner champion hurdle can't comprehend that you're actually allowed to bet favourites too. 

supreme

not a particularly strong renewal here and i think kopek is a very fair bet at 10/11 all things considered, make it closer to 8/11 after taking in to account the potential for pre-race antics. if you're happy to wait and see and willing to take a shorter price if all goes well then that's fair but do think it's priced in here right now and on ability i'd say this is closer to a 1/2 chance if he gets to the post safely. i had some jumping concerns the last day but he improved markedly from hurdles debut to the g1 win, a thoroughly impressive progression, tanking through that race and still pulling as he quickened three lengths clear round the bend. he's going to have a horse or two that can keep the pace for a bit longer today which will help him get up the hill with the likes of romeo coolio and workahead likely to make this a test. obviously that g1 he won the last day wasn't all that deep and you could use that as an excuse but i think competition aside very clearly this is the best horse while the other horses towards the head of the market have had some limitations exposed against inferior opposition.

romeo coolio isn't a horse i like very much. interesting to note that the plan early in the season was to run him over 2m6f as well as being a 3m ptp winner. he looked quite slow when getting beat by a pretty ordinary, exposed handicapper at fairyhouse and they realised that when sending him to out gallop them in leopardstown but that was another shallow race where he wasn't given a hard time out in front. tactically speaking he should be at an advantage and the track will suit what is likely the best stayer in the race so not without a chance but i think there are horses with a higher ceiling of ability at 2m. price is fine, don't think he should be bigger. would be a solid ew bet at 10/1 if it ever got there. 

would expect william munny to have improved beyond workahead despite the seven length gap between them the last day. workahead had the benefit of the run and tactics that day but when he quickened clear i was quite impressed by the way william munny made up ground, pulling away from the rest of the field himself, before getting a little tired. i do, however, believe he ran as well as we should expect him to behind kawaboomga the next day and that horse had very little trouble quickening by near the line after a bit of a jumping error at the last. the potential upside with william munny though is that the horse settled nicely for the first time when cantering home in a listed race in his first run with a full time jockey on board, and with the application of a hood here today there's every chance this horse improves on anything he's ever posted on a racecourse. 2.6 the place in an each way bet isn't unappealing and any 4/1 without the fav is decent enough too. 

thought tripoli flyer was interesting, concerned about the bleeding from the nose the last day but he stays well, the ground will be good enough to see him run his race. irancy looked like a nice prospect the last day, quickened up smartly when they straightened up but has had a setback since and they haven't managed to get a race in which is a concern in a race of this nature. one for the future, could surprise but will go unbacked my end.