1:45 manifesto
interesting race. trying to figure out who has been most impacted by running at cheltenham is random number generator but i do think it is important to note that grey dawning and ginny's destiny ran on the stiffer new course in a well run race on soft/heavy ground two days after the arkle and despite staying 3m, grey dawning got very tired up the hill so i absolutely would not be taking 2.1x on a horse that i think had the hardest race of all of these runners at the festival.
ginnys destiny made a mistake two out and lost about a length, beaten slightly more than that at the line behind a tired horse so probably not good enough to reverse at true peak but that probably won't be the case for either and i do think the price discrepancy is a little disrespectful but i'm not certain there is any value in taking 9/2 on a horse that did have a tough race and is now six runs deep in to the season, all on softish ground at a stiff track.
il etait tempts will be popular after staying on the arkle and would expect him to be a touch fresher than the other two but he jumps like a pig and on all known form he has half a stone to find. whether the others run up to that i'm doubtful ofc but it's more than enough to think this 5/2, 3/1 range is tight enough.
i bet colonel harry at cheltenham and he was given a questionable ride, never put in to the race at any stage when the race was developing 20 lengths in front of him and he ran on late for a fair finish and i would suspect he had the easiest race at cheltenham of the four runners that went there so i can see why the market has come for him a bit but he may just not be good enough. i'm fine with leaving the 18-20's bu if you got the 33s overnight and are happy with the tragedy that is betting overnights then good for you.
i'm going to bet blow your wad at 14/1 and be sad when he clearly isn't good enough but i am very much of the opinion that the front three had very hard races at cheltenham and although this horse absolutely has to improve a stone to win, i don't think the market has fully grasped how good he was in the pendil. admittedly a weak race relative to this but tamurhas was quite readily beaten that day despite the small winning margin, jockey didn't have to ask blow your wad any questions to regather himself and quicken up to retain his lead when challenged and i think he's better than than that win. still only six, he's improving (may well have improved for the first time cheekpieces, maybe they don't work as well again) but this horse is a flat track bully. all of his wins have been on flat tracks, finished a fair 6th in a handicap behind ginnys destiny at cheltenham when stated that he hated the track and was never traveling. a much better chaser than he ever was a hurdle and is still improving. i doubt he wins but at 14's for a horse very much going in the right direction coming in fresher than everything else on a track/trip that suits, i have no real questions other than ability ceiling but for that i believe there is hope.
