1:45 manifesto

interesting race. trying to figure out who has been most impacted by running at cheltenham is random number generator but i do think it is important to note that grey dawning and ginny's destiny ran on the stiffer new course in a well run race on soft/heavy ground two days after the arkle and despite staying 3m, grey dawning got very tired up the hill so i absolutely would not be taking 2.1x on a horse that i think had the hardest race of all of these runners at the festival.

ginnys destiny made a mistake two out and lost about a length, beaten slightly more than that at the line behind a tired horse so probably not good enough to reverse at true peak but that probably won't be the case for either and i do think the price discrepancy is a little disrespectful but i'm not certain there is any value in taking 9/2 on a horse that did have a tough race and is now six runs deep in to the season, all on softish ground at a stiff track. 

il etait tempts will be popular after staying on the arkle and would expect him to be a touch fresher than the other two but he jumps like a pig and on all known form he has half a stone to find. whether the others run up to that i'm doubtful ofc but it's more than enough to think this 5/2, 3/1 range is tight enough. 

i bet colonel harry at cheltenham and he was given a questionable ride, never put in to the race at any stage when the race was developing 20 lengths in front of him and he ran on late for a fair finish and i would suspect he had the easiest race at cheltenham of the four runners that went there so i can see why the market has come for him a bit but he may just not be good enough. i'm fine with leaving the 18-20's bu if you got the 33s overnight and are happy with the tragedy that is betting overnights then good for you.

i'm going to bet blow your wad at 14/1 and be sad when he clearly isn't good enough but i am very much of the opinion that the front three had very hard races at cheltenham and although this horse absolutely has to improve a stone to win, i don't think the market has fully grasped how good he was in the pendil. admittedly a weak race relative to this but tamurhas was quite readily beaten that day despite the small winning margin, jockey didn't have to ask blow your wad any questions to regather himself and quicken up to retain his lead when challenged and i think he's better than than that win. still only six, he's improving (may well have improved for the first time cheekpieces, maybe they don't work as well again) but this horse is a flat track bully. all of his wins have been on flat tracks, finished a fair 6th in a handicap behind ginnys destiny at cheltenham when stated that he hated the track and was never traveling. a much better chaser than he ever was a hurdle and is still improving. i doubt he wins but at 14's for a horse very much going in the right direction coming in fresher than everything else on a track/trip that suits, i have no real questions other than ability ceiling but for that i believe there is hope.

3:30 gold cup

fav going to be tough to beat but this ground can throw up a result and he ran a few shockers as a hurdler in this ground. he is obviously a significantly better horse these days and over fences and he has plenty of wins in soft but if there is a reason he gets beat, it likely will be the ground. the gold cup he won last year was an awful race and they set it up for him by going very quick up front while he sat out the back and picked them off as they all pulled up and fell around him. he got back to his best the last day by making all and that will turn this in to a very different race for him than the one he won last year so tactics are going to be interesting.

i think this is a very good race so i'm more than happy to take him on and the one i landed on weeks ago was gerri colombe. i got some 11/1 and 12/1 win only but i would also be perfectly happy betting the 7/1 each way four places that is still available today. happy to almost throw out the run the last day, sometimes good horses run bad races for certain reasons and the fav has done that previously too. gerri colombe has always looked every bit a gold cup horse and was an unlucky loser in the rsa at the festival last year when flying up the hill behind the real whacker over two furlongs shorter. they didn't real care about the last day and although they were disappointed with the way he ran, this has been his target all season and he is kept fresh ready for this. he loves the mud and he stays well, i have zero question marks about this horse and i think he improves again for this test. i'm a huge fan. 

fastorslow can't win. he beat galopin at the back end of last year when galopin was coming off the back of a very gruelling gold cup and he clearly did not run his race then people convinced himself they were even remotely close ability wise when fastorslow beat him again in a 2m4f race that was run at a crawl of a pace for 2m. the last day really showed us who the better horse was in a comfortable win in a relatively slowly run 3m on a flat track. this is a very different race and for a horse that is much more about speed and has been flattered to be so close to galopin three times because of significantly beneficial circumstances, i just can not have this horse winning a competitive, well run gold cup over 3m2f in heavy ground.

l'homme presse is a nice horse and he looked smart when beating yesterday's winner protektorat at lingfield but he struggled at ascot the next day and has something to prove now. he won the rsa well a couple of years ago but i'm not certain this ort of dour test is up his street. talented individual but i think he finds at least one too good. corach rambler beat fastorslow here last year and is only on four pound worse terms but he has a different seasonal target in mind and i'm not sure they will want him to have too hard of a race here in this ground with the grand national only a month away. he certainly deserves to take his chance and he is going to stay better than pretty much every other runner so he is not without a chance. 

bravemansgame will be better suited by the way this race may be run. they went very fast from the front last year and he paid the price late on when galopin came to claim him but while there is still some pace in this renewal, i doubt they go quite as fast and he may well have a chance to hold on if he is prominent early again. i think he is probably past his best overall though. 

2:50 albert bartlett

i hate this race. i think it's too much for novice hurdlers to take on at such a young age and it's been a good while since a winner of this race turned out to be a very smart horse down the line and i do think that is somewhat due to how much this race can take out of a horse early in their career. and it's frustrating this year because i think specifically gidleigh park has a very promising chasing career in his future and i'm not certain he can or will realise that potential after what is traditionally a 3m sprint on the stiffer of the two courses at cheltenham. 

readin' tommy wrong has drifted out to a much more likeable price this morning but i don't particularly like his form and less so now having watched how mid ile atlantique is in the baring bingham. i'm not at all convinced he stays 2m4f so readin' tommy wrong outstaying him doesn't seem like much of a feat to me. mullins didn't seem too hot on this horse prior and again after he doesn't seem in love but he will be one of those that does stay a good trip and he likely won't be beat for stamina here. i can't bet this horse as a favourite in a competitive little race.

gidleigh park as mentioned is a horse i love and i think he will be better for three miles. his form doesn't read all that strongly but he looked like he needed further when grinding his way back to the front after being headed the last day at this track. the money is down this morning as he has moved from 7 overnight down to 5.7 at time of typing and that move is enough to keep me away from betting him. if i was getting 11/2 first four i would be betting but 4/1 and even 7/2 in some places, i'm not interested. 

i'm happy to pass over captain teague as well. i do think he's a very nice horse and he's a love big chasing type as well and the way he travelled through the challow was that of a smart horse but i would note that nicholls had stated a few times in the lead up to the festival that this horse would go for the 2m5f if theground was more testing and would only go for this race on drier ground so i think there are some concerns about stamina for this horse and he did get very weary in bottomless ground in the challow. we can only assume that nicholls decided to come here after ballyburn went for the 2m5f and i think he is plenty vulnerable enough based on those decisions and comments.

mullins has another nice horse in here in dancing city and he stayed on strongly to win over 2m6f the last day, confirming the promise of the previous run and building on the positivity that mullins has had about this horse since he arrived in the yard. the form ahead of predators gold is abysmal though despite the figures suggesting it is some of the best form coming in to the race. he will also have had a hard race that day and this is going to be another gruelling test so i'm not at all convinced 40 days between testing runs is going to be helpful in a finish here and i suspect he might find something too strong up the hill, but i wouldn't put anyone off an each way bet if you are so inclined, i think he runs a decent enough race. 

easy enough to pass over the likes of lecky watson, high class hero and chigorin here. although i did like the way johnnywho stayed on in the challow in tough conditions. he's a small enough horse and the run the last day came quick enough after a tough one in the challow so you can forgive him for running a bit below par that day, i think he has had a hard enough season already but i thought he was very promising on seasonal debut and i bet him in the challow so he is a horse i have some time for. i'm just concerned this is one run too many. 

the one i have taken is the jukebox man at 20/1 four places. he ran in the challow behind captain teague and although he wasn't quite good enough that day, he travelled very nicely and stayed on well to the line but he was still very green and juvenile that day. he will have learned a lot and he looks a thorough stayer in the making. he will likely improve for this trip and he's being brought along nice and slowly on purpose. big, strong, chasing type that is improving with every run and i think he can ho on enough to run a big race here. 

1:30 triumph

this is a much weaker triumph than we have seen in recent years and naturally as a result it is a more wide open affair but the market should be pretty informative given that every useful horse comes from the same stable but i do think the market is currently mispriced mostly just because the market is kind of following the willie mullins jockey bookings right now. 

willie sounded keen enough on majborough in a few interviews because he had picked up a training injury prior to his run in dublin and will have needed that run when third in a g1 on his seasonal reappearance and first run for the stable since coming over from france behind two horse who he runs against again here, with another few in here today just behind him. he travelled well enough on the front and mark walsh did not ask him to do too much until he had already been headed so it is easy to see why there is a lot of improvement expected from this lad and i would be surprised if he wasn't involved in the finish in some capacity. i'm a bit surprised he is not at the head of the market here.

storm heart has taken over as favourite and he went off favourite when second in that juvenile hurdle involving half the field in dublin. he had already had one impressive win going in to dublin and he had five flat runs in france so he was a fair bit more experienced than most of the field that day so i expect something to improve past him today. the only reason i can really see that he has been backed is because stable jockey paul townend rides him but that is more by default than actual choice. been noted previously that willie wanted danny mullins back on board kargese because how much he has learned about her riding in the last two runs and mark walsh auto rides the jp horse. 

nurburgring had a lot of experience coming from the flat and has had two hurdles runs already so while i think experience is very useful here, i would be surprised if there wasn't something in here that was good enough to beat him because the two hurdles runs he has had were a step below what some of the less experienced horses have already shown and i would think they would be more likely to improve again so i am more than happy to pass him over at a tight enough price. he was running on nicely the last day behind kargese and wasn't beaten much at all and his action suggests the over night rain will be a benefit.

i'm taking the 8/1 each way four places on bunting because i strongly feel like he will have learned the most from the dublin race when he looked very juvenile and green throughout. his jumping was sketchy, and that is a concern, but he looks to have a real engine. he was just making a forward move at the second last, still hard on the bridle, but he made a mistake as the front few horses were quickening and he lost a few lengths which he very quickly made up with a little nudge from his jockey, was an impressive move and he was running on nicely under very little pressure up the straight but when he jumped the last, one of his better jumps of the race, he tried to hang inside and ran in to a wall of horses before switching back out and running on again better than anything in front when he was finally straightened up. he may well be fourth or even five choice based on jockey bookings but there is very little between these horse and i would be confident that he will be a lot better today than he was the last. 

2:50 ryanair

okay let's start with stage star. i don't like him, especially coming off the back of an unexplained poor run. it's not the first time he has done that and he has managed to bounce back but in weaker races than this. he does well at this track but he's never really beaten anything, and certainly nothing of this level. won a handicap off 155 fairly comfortably and that's impressive enough but it wasn't a particularly strong renewal of the paddy power and despite being taken on for the lead they didn't go that strong early with everything in behind fairly keen. his win at the festival last year was nothing to shout about either - mighty potter went off 4/6 having beaten a grand national horse over 2m4f . he's going to get taken on for the lead here and they will go a much better gallop than he has had to round this course previously so his tradition of getting headed then running on again is less likely this time.

protektorat is one that will likely force the pace with him stepped down in trip having travelled sweetly over 3m a lot lately out but i kind of feel like he needs to be stepped up in trip much like neptune collonge, think the problem is his relative lack of pace rather than ability to stay. he has been getting to line strongly after getting outpaced so i'm just not so sure this is for him despite everyone calling for him to drop back in trip. stable going very well and they're excellent at placing horses in the right races so i may just be talking shit but he's not for me. 

i think banbridge is talented enough to win but i don't think he runs up to his best on this ground so i'm willing to pass him over not that he has been bet in to what i thought was roughly the right price. capodanno won a bit of a sprint last time out which was a surprise because he's much more of a stayer and he's being aimed at the grand national after this so i'll be very confused if he manages to win this but it will likely be a fierce pace so he could pick up some pieces late if he's not too outpaced mid race. 

i've always thought this is the perfect trip for envoi allen and he won very well last year but the drop off is going to come. he's a 10 year old now and while he's been racing less and less to keep him fresh for cheltenham every year, where he has an incredible record, i just can't get there to bet a 10 year old in a deeply competitive, strongly run race in softer ground at this sort of price despite thinking he should be the favourite. i think he is also a better horse on slightly better ground than this so i have plenty enough concerns to not bet him here. think he might get outstayed late. 

stupidly enough i have ended up on ahoy senor at ~22 on exchange. this is a very tough days racing and i don't have much confidence of a win but i think he's a bit overpriced for one that stays so well. yeah, he probably doesn't want it as sharp as this like a few in here but stiffer new course will help and so will the end to end gallop that they are likely to go so think he'll be staying on late in the day. he has some real upside to his game and some of the numbers he has posted just last year would see him be very much involved in this from an ability stand point. he's going to need a true run race and he probably still finds one too good but i don't think many ahead of him have shown the ability that he has previously so i'm more than willing to take a chance in a wide open race that he can go and win a second g1. 

1:30 turners

have some bets on facile vega at bigger prices from a week or two ago and the consensus seems to be that he will be better at 2m4f of which i'm not certain but it is definitely worth the try. i just think he's by far the most talented horse in this race and the irish form is superior to the english so while he does have wins on better ground, i'm still of the opinion that he will benefit from the softer ground than he has encountered the last twice. saying all of that, i'm happy with the price i got but i would absolutely not be touching him in this race at the current prices because his last two runs have been terrible but again, that's probably still better than the english form. 

grey dawning has improved a significant amount for chasing this season and likely would have beaten ginny's destiny here in december if not for making a shuddering error two out before staying on again, now three pound better off i find it very tough to see how ginny's destiny can hold that form on ground that favours grey dawning a touch more than it does ginny's destiny. both improved a good few pound again in winning their next starts so it is reasonable to assume that ginny could have improved enough but that's a lot of faith to put in an eight year old. 

iroko the obviously interesting runner. won the martin pipe last year and ran a strong staying third in the aintree g1 before bolting up on chasing debut. the horse he beat had won a g2 over hurdles in france and won a handicap off 135 over fences since but that form isn't all that strong in comparison to the front three and he has to improve a significant amount to win this but as a six year old with just one chase start it is expected that he will improve markedly in the near future. the market, however, does seem to be relatively cool on this horse after four months off the track. has been doing all his best work later in races over 2m4f and the g1 that he stayed on strongly in was over 3m so every chance he wants further than this so would likely need this to develop in to a bit of a test. better for him that this race is run on the new course.

i'm very interested in colonel harry in a couple of markets because i think at his best he has very little to find to fill a place here, especially if you can get 4/1ish in the four place market. he's coming off the back off a bad run in the scilly isles but that was a farce of a race the way it was run and it was on much faster ground than colonel harry wants. he's a 3m point winner (would be duel winner if not for a fall at the last when up seven lengths) and he stayed on strongly to win his g2 at wetherby in january so the stiffer new course should suit. the form isn't as good as some of these but the horse he beat quite nicely there was only beaten three lengths by ginny's destiny, in the race that grey dawning was chasing the winner down, on his previous start and ran up to the same mark behind colonel harry. he needs to improve but a stiffer track and softer ground will suit and i think it's well within his scope to improve enough, with everything in his favour, to sneak a minor place here.

letsbeclearaboutit has a fair run in him back at 2,4f after trying 2m and 3m the last twice, did win a g3 over this trip early in the season and was third in a g1 going off 5/4 so they certainly think he's good enough for this grade. fourth in the albart bartlett last year. doesn't have the upside of some of these and is nine now so minor places for him might be the best hge can hope for. sharjah just not as good of a chaser and easy to see why they waited until he was 10 to go over fences. zanahiyr is interesting, some champion hurdle form makes him competitive but his jimping has been scrappy at best; if he cleans up the errors he certainly has the ability to be involved. it's a very competitive race but outside of the top three, i think colonel harry has the most upside at this track, trip and ground. small bet at 40/1 each way the three, slightly bigger bet on the four place market at anywhere that I can get filled from 5.0 and above. worth noting how poorly the nicholls' horses are running, kind of gone under the radar with the whole henderson situation but his four runners have barely beaten a horse and stay away fay scoped dirty when he came back in yesterday so one of the 'big three' may well run below his level. 

 3:30 champion chase

el fabiolo should win if he gets round. tends to hit one hard so i don't begrudge anyone that wants to have a flyer on something else in the hope that he doesn't get round but that's pretty much priced in to the market. if we knew they all got round safely then el fabiolo is 1/10 here. 

i have a pretty strong opinion here in the without market and it's that i really want to be against edwardstone. and i've ended up on captain guinness at around 2/1-9/4 range because he will handle the ground, stays well enough and is a consistent horse whereas i think gentleman de mee and elixir du nutz both want faster ground than this to be at their best while boothill and funambule both probably just not good enough.

edwardstone, for me, is a pure two miler and i am not at all convinced that he likes cheltenham because of it. he won the arkle in a very weak renewal and won it well but he has had plenty of other opportunities here and done nothing, including bombing out in this race last year behind enurgemene. he won very well at newbury the last day but he got a completely uncontested lead, was allowed to do what he liked and quickened away from some pretty ordinary horses on the day and that's not going to happen here. gentleman de mee and elix de nutz are both going to contest the pace which likely means that edwardstone sits off them and hopes to pick up the pieces later in the day but if this is end to end which is very well could be, in this ground, for a horse that has done most of his winning on flat tracks, i think it finds him out. 

2:10 brown advisory

fact to file very good too. bit more competitive this race though. looks every bit a gold cup horse of the future and i am annoyed i missed the 10/11 last night. slightly under 1.8 on exchange probably still fine but this is a decent enough little race. 

not at all convinced monty's star is even good, not sure why he is joint second in here after beating the biggest plodder in national hunt racing last time out. will enjoy the ground and stays so no real negatives i'm just not sure he has the ability. did bomb out at cheltenham in the plodders novice over three last year.

i'm of the opinion that we just don't know how good stay away fay actually is because of his running style. he reminds me of big bucks a touch in that he just does enough and stays forever. he won with stamina in both of his chasing wins to start the season then tried to jump out of novice company in a warm race last time out. he has made the running in most of his races the last year or so but with the real whacker and ahoy senor both in competition for the lead they didn't try to push the pace last time out and the race developed in to a bit of a sprint and he got out pointed by capodanno. strayed off a straight line up the straight but ran on again when straightened up and the cheek pieces should help there. there are no natural front runners in this race and given how much he needs this to be a real test of stamina, i would be surprised if they didn't go forward with him again today. not raced on ground this deep but it seems to be drying a shade and he does have form in soft. fact to file might be too good but i would make him a pretty clear fav in the without market and that isn't necessarily the case right now. 

american mike beat fact to file over shorter at start of the season and won over 3m last time but he got incredibly tired late that day and although the form is fine, i would be surprised if he were strong enough in the finish to beat some of these. he's a nice horse but i would much rather see him in something over 2m4f. sandor clegane doesn't look like much of a chase but he does have a bundle of stamina while giovinco probably wants a flatter track to get this trip in this ground. 

yesterday was a bit of a shit show. was good then it wasn't. betmgm had a horror show and were instantly manually accepting bets on stale lines all day because their whole site was fucked so you could get down decent amounts on prices that hadn't existed for 30 minutes and all were settled correctly. unfortunately that's because they almost all fucking lost. apple away was 9/4 joint fav top british in the 4 miler that's less than 4 miles now when on the exchange she was 7.6 to win the race and everything else in that market was bigger than 15 and nemean lion in the champion in same market was 7/2 while iberico lord was 11/10 but they were both 18.5 on the exchange at the time. ranges of outcomes and all that but they were just stale line that never got updated once throughout the day. site is fixed now so edge dead. rip. 

1:30 whatever this race is called now

ballyburn obvious fucking good, form franked, will hose up in a dog shit renewal of a shitty race. mullins has four of the six and the henderson thing simply can't win so will take a ben pauling miracle to take this away from willie. how has henderson decided to run this thing and not the others when he has said that he has no idea why they are running badly? 

ile atlantique was benefit of making the running last time despite mullins saying that wasn't the plan. don't really believe that because he was upside jumping the first and had made the running in each of his three runs prior but every winner on the card at naas that day was leading or very prominent except reading tommy wrong so does make me question how good ile atlantique actually is. won his maiden hurdle as you would expect but beaten every time he's been asked a question. talented enough and this is a shoddy race so probably chases ballyburn home but if they go and try to win the race, as they should, he could get beat by something up the hill for second when he gets tired. 

predators gold is a plodder. he should be in the 3m old boat race on friday. he was in line with dancing city jumping the second last in leopardstown but the winner easily quickened away before the last and it took predators gold forever to get going, finally getting past jetara of all horses. that horse would be 50s in here, form is poverty, track might help rather than flat leopardstown. form the day before behind caldwell potter cut up with fav and second fav bombing out in bottomless ground. i think he's a chance to finish second because he will stay well but he needs to improve a stone to trouble ballyburn. market starting to move towards him though. interesting. 

i think if you really want to bet this race then mercurey top 3 4/1 a touch of value. they really liked this horse early days when he bolted up in his bumper, beat in good ground by two nice horses the next day and got injured on hurdles debut. badly needed the run on return behind lisnagar fortune, the horse has form with reading tommy wrong who beat ile atlantique last time over a different trip though, but the way mercurey travelled in to the race was impressive but got very tired late and was beaten about eight lengths. won with head in chest on next start in a terrible race but if mullins is right and the plan for ile atlantique is not to make the running then this boy is likely to be the one to make it and i doubt there will be a contested lead if ile atlantique is not pushing forward. the english form is terrible and jimmy du seuil isn't much good so the places specifically looks very tidy. mercurey to beat handstands at 2/1 with betfred. 

 4:10 mares

loussiemouth taking a tiny drift this morning and i can only assume that is because of the ground. we've known the trip for weeks and she's been strong enough in the market but the ground is going to come up softer than anything she has seen previously at least in a race as strong as this. g3 at fairyhouse on irish debut and maybe the race after at leopardstown but the ground rode on the good side of soft on the new course at cheltenham last year despite being officially soft and improvement has coincided with running on better ground over the last 14 months. we expect her to stay the trip based on runs in better ground but the question is whether she can do it in deeper ground. she looked like a star when she won in january. 

i think there are a lot of similar questions to be asked about ashroe diamond as well. she ran decent enough races in some novice g1s in 2022 behind marine nationale and facile vega but she only really beat horses she was expected to beat in both of those runs and a soft ground win over jetara may seem like okay form now but jetara improved two stone after a break when returning as a five year old. relatively good ground wins in a horrible g1 at fairyhouse which was basically a g3 and a g2 at doncaster when going off second fav behind gala marceau with the market was very much in the favour of the latter that day. no trip concerns if she handles the ground.

that race at doncaster is very interesting. gala marceau travelled smoothly but two things that you don't see in any reports and something you won't know without watching the race is that she got squeezed out of position just before the second last and lost a couple of lengths which she then had to try and make up but she switched legs right before the last and it was almost like she took a false step and that cost her a bit of forward momentum as well and never had much chance to chase ashroe down after that. ashroe was race fit that day and gala was not. you just have to ignore the last run if you want to back gala here today and that run was too bad to be true so that is something i'm willing to do because she was so good in auteuil at the back end of last year in deep ground. she's still only five and she has a very smart run at cheltenham in the triumph to her name. i would be interested in her in a few markets at current prices before they move. 

love envoi got blasted by lossiemouth last time out and tough to see her reverse that form but she does go well round here and the softer ground won't be any issue for her and neither will the trip so she can certainly go and get a bit closer with the first time cheekpieces. i'm going to end up with too much against ashroe diamond in the without market here but i think she's just much too short in this ground stepping up in class. this is a deep race too. betmgm have love envoi 13/8 best british versus marie's rock, you wear it well and theatre glory and that seems like a very decent way to punt love envoi as well as the w/o and each way stuff. fired too much on this race and will definitely regret it. 

3:30 champion

state man obviously good and probably just wins. got 10lb in hand in an abysmal renewal. rock on ruby went off 11/1 as a 165 rated horse the year he won with 166 rated overturn a 20's poke and they're both half a stone better than the second horse here. iberico lord 10/1 third in having won a handicap off 134 last time is a fucking travesty. 

irish point might be good, i mean he is good, but what the fuck is he doing in here? he was a shorter price for the 3m race later in the week and yeah, he's won at two but in a maiden and two shitty g3 races. he is definitely improving but it is plainly obvious that he improved 10 or so pound for an extra half last season and another half stone on anything he's achieved when upped to 3m the last day. sadly it is still the case that if he runs up to his grade three form he will actually be the one to follow state man home in something called the champion hurdle. grade three form finishing second in a champion hurdle with a 134 handicapper chasing them up the hill. the excitement is unbearable.

iberico rated 143 now and he would probably win off that mark as well but seriously, there has to be a racehorse somewhere that can beat this lad over 2m for some prize money? he won well at cheltenham off a coral cup bottom weight type mark in november and he will be suited by the soft ground but 12 year old not so sleepy has posted a much better figure this season. i think iberico will run well and every chance he can improve enough to beat the rest of the field but i have zero interest in prices around the 10 mark. 

i'm going to end up backing zarak the brave in every market imaginable and doing the lot in because i can't fathom why this horse is more than double the price of iberico on the exchange and in basically every market. the mullins team clearly liked this horse because he went off 2.25 to beat supremely talented lossiemouth giving her 7lb in december 2022 and then tried to run her down off same weights at punchestown a year ago, beaten a length or so before winning a galway festival hurdle as a four year old off 145. that form is much better than winning a betfair off 134 as a six year old. something amiss the next day in tipperary but fairly hosed up four months later when back on the track giving 7lb to a decent enough horse in telmesomethinggirl. he might want ground a bit faster than this but shown a decent level in soft ground to think he'll run his race. 34-36 on the exchange, 7.5 without state man 1-3 places. this is a very talented horse and while he is running in a champion hurdle as a five year old and in a normal year he would likely be a touch out of his depth, this is a very poor renewal. footpad ran 4th in a much deeper champion as a five year old for these connections and look how good he turned out to be. 

nemean lion quickened nicely in the kingwell before getting a bit lonely in front and that was a much improved effort. some nice horses have won that race in the past before champion hurdling. funnily enough this horse went off a shorter price than iberico lord giving him a stone at cheltenham in november and is now 40+ here while iberico lord is 10s off level weights now. not sure that huge reversal is warranted given that one of them won a handicap off 134 and the other readily won a grade two. 

2:10 arkle

what a shit heap. jumps racing truly is dead if this is the best we have to offer in 2m novice chases. 3.75 fav gaelic warrior would be twos on if he didn't blow up the last day. just bet it and hope he doesn't lose 30 lengths jumping right handed. none of these get close as far as ability is concerned. raced in tacky, sticky ground in dublin on the second day of the festival so it was hard work and he got beat by a high class stayer that they think is gold cup bound over an extended 2m5f, not much shame in that and wasn't the only very smart horse that struggling in those conditions. market has started to move so suggests well being is fine. fresh, soft ground on a course that hasn't been used yet, would expect a much better and he's very clearly the best horse here having ran all over the second in two starts back. just going to take a deep breath and fucking punt because the questions he has to answer aren't worth as much as the market is suggesting in my shitty opinion.

il etait temps is a decent enough horse but he's been pumped every time he's seen a decent race horse (excl marine national who ran no race in dublin). beaten soundly by gaelic warrior in limerick, beaten soundly twice by facile vega, beaten soundly three times by vauban and beaten soundly by marine nationale last year. how is this horse possibly good enough to win an arkle? a concerning lack of depth in national hunt racing, that's how. same can be said for found a fifty and quilixios who got thunder cunted over 2m three times by a three miler in teahupoo. horrible race this. 

hunters yarn showed enough last time to think he could run a race but that one run was a stone better than anything he's ever shown before and he's inexperienced over the larger obstacle having raced only twice, falling at the first attempt and almost fell second time up too. looks a much better chase than hurdler and he is the danger if anything but form of that win is nothing special or even approaching. ran arguably worst race of his career at cheltenham last year and both chases have been right handed. some form at navan over hurdles which is always handy. 

jpr one the only one with half a squeak from the english. travels well through his races and the yard like him plenty but the form is dire and he has to improve a good 10lb to go and win this. 

1:30 supreme

tullyhill a big, strong, ground mashing galloper. willie mullins obviously exceptional at this whole training thing and choice of paul townend (is he the choice? mark walsh always going to ride the jp entry) but form is full of holes and won last two starts going a crawl with no competition for the lead, allowed to stop and start as he pleased. does not lack pace and should have required stamina but was tying up over 3m in a point and blew up over 2m6f on reappearance so some slight unanswered questions given the way the last two races were run for 1m4f. not too much natural pace in this race either but never going to be allowed to dictate a slow pace in a race of this nature - tellherthename most likely to take him on for the lead. ground a positive, race not that deep but price is tight enough based on unknowns. probably beats the piss out of them.

tough to have real strong form coming in to a race of this nature so no surprise that mystical power has not beaten too much either. some concern about ability to jump a hurdle after two sketchy outings but more clumsy then actually bad although that can get you in some trouble around cheltenham, hood on first time will help him concentrate, not ideal situation to be reaching for the headgear though. keen through two easy wins and should have a better pace to aim at but the move to quicken off a slow pace between horses as they turned for home at punchestown was very impressive so think there is a lot of ability there. some books going four places a 5th (standard is three, all sorts of money back offers floating too) including betfred who are still top price this lad at 4s, seems decent enough ew price and doesn't hurt that exchange is already shorter on the win part. there are some shit heaps running in behind here.

pretty obvious that slade steel is here just to avoid ballyburn and was flattered to finish as close to that one last time based on way the race was run with nothing in behind making up any ground, stamina coming in to play to hold off everything behind. nothing as good as ballyburn here of course but would need a real pace to be seen at best here and doubt that will be the case. proximity of a 17 race maiden in previous win over 2m says a lot about that form and slade's ability at this trip, ran on well to win 3m ptp so be surprised if he had required speed to win this. might pick a few off late. might surprise and push the pace knowing he needs a test but likely still to find at least one too good over this trip. would add at least two points to the 6.6 on the exchange win only. 

ballyburn improved a two stone from seasonal reappearance so don't care that firefox beat it one bit when already race fit. started life over 2m4f then was reverted to nh flats and ran in four including one to start the season? clearly this horse has taken a long time to find his feet so might not be quite as exposed as one may think, could still be improving but very disappointing effort in the closing stages over 2m4f last start when suppose to be a bit more of a stayer. probably in the best position turning for home and found nothing having drifted from 2.5 to bigger than 3 bsp. some ability but he's not a 6's poke to win a grade one of this nature over this trip.  

decent enough engine on jeriko du reponet and liked the form of the last win with lump sum posting a decent number in a g2 next start and nature of the two hurdles wins make it pretty tough to know how high the ceiling is. probably be better off a decent pace and versatile as far as ground goes but market wasn't confident the last day although duly dotted up but questions about how good they think he is and fuck me, nicky henderson could not be having a worse time of it and price on this has not moved all week so think we might see a drift on this tomorrow. many questions, probably just not as good as the irish on what he has shown but think he has more scope for improvement over this trip than a couple ahead of him in the market. no real interest in a henderson horse until a few have run though because he's only ran one horse in 10 days and it ran like a sack of shit.   

mistergif maybe good? not a clue. beat a horse that has been running for three years and never got close to seeing a winners enclosure with third another furlong behind. playing a guessing game. if it wins fair enough but i have zero clue how good he is or how good he could be. hurdles form in france is dogshit.