3:30 champion chase

el fabiolo should win if he gets round. tends to hit one hard so i don't begrudge anyone that wants to have a flyer on something else in the hope that he doesn't get round but that's pretty much priced in to the market. if we knew they all got round safely then el fabiolo is 1/10 here. 

i have a pretty strong opinion here in the without market and it's that i really want to be against edwardstone. and i've ended up on captain guinness at around 2/1-9/4 range because he will handle the ground, stays well enough and is a consistent horse whereas i think gentleman de mee and elixir du nutz both want faster ground than this to be at their best while boothill and funambule both probably just not good enough.

edwardstone, for me, is a pure two miler and i am not at all convinced that he likes cheltenham because of it. he won the arkle in a very weak renewal and won it well but he has had plenty of other opportunities here and done nothing, including bombing out in this race last year behind enurgemene. he won very well at newbury the last day but he got a completely uncontested lead, was allowed to do what he liked and quickened away from some pretty ordinary horses on the day and that's not going to happen here. gentleman de mee and elix de nutz are both going to contest the pace which likely means that edwardstone sits off them and hopes to pick up the pieces later in the day but if this is end to end which is very well could be, in this ground, for a horse that has done most of his winning on flat tracks, i think it finds him out.