2:50 ryanair

okay let's start with stage star. i don't like him, especially coming off the back of an unexplained poor run. it's not the first time he has done that and he has managed to bounce back but in weaker races than this. he does well at this track but he's never really beaten anything, and certainly nothing of this level. won a handicap off 155 fairly comfortably and that's impressive enough but it wasn't a particularly strong renewal of the paddy power and despite being taken on for the lead they didn't go that strong early with everything in behind fairly keen. his win at the festival last year was nothing to shout about either - mighty potter went off 4/6 having beaten a grand national horse over 2m4f . he's going to get taken on for the lead here and they will go a much better gallop than he has had to round this course previously so his tradition of getting headed then running on again is less likely this time.

protektorat is one that will likely force the pace with him stepped down in trip having travelled sweetly over 3m a lot lately out but i kind of feel like he needs to be stepped up in trip much like neptune collonge, think the problem is his relative lack of pace rather than ability to stay. he has been getting to line strongly after getting outpaced so i'm just not so sure this is for him despite everyone calling for him to drop back in trip. stable going very well and they're excellent at placing horses in the right races so i may just be talking shit but he's not for me. 

i think banbridge is talented enough to win but i don't think he runs up to his best on this ground so i'm willing to pass him over not that he has been bet in to what i thought was roughly the right price. capodanno won a bit of a sprint last time out which was a surprise because he's much more of a stayer and he's being aimed at the grand national after this so i'll be very confused if he manages to win this but it will likely be a fierce pace so he could pick up some pieces late if he's not too outpaced mid race. 

i've always thought this is the perfect trip for envoi allen and he won very well last year but the drop off is going to come. he's a 10 year old now and while he's been racing less and less to keep him fresh for cheltenham every year, where he has an incredible record, i just can't get there to bet a 10 year old in a deeply competitive, strongly run race in softer ground at this sort of price despite thinking he should be the favourite. i think he is also a better horse on slightly better ground than this so i have plenty enough concerns to not bet him here. think he might get outstayed late. 

stupidly enough i have ended up on ahoy senor at ~22 on exchange. this is a very tough days racing and i don't have much confidence of a win but i think he's a bit overpriced for one that stays so well. yeah, he probably doesn't want it as sharp as this like a few in here but stiffer new course will help and so will the end to end gallop that they are likely to go so think he'll be staying on late in the day. he has some real upside to his game and some of the numbers he has posted just last year would see him be very much involved in this from an ability stand point. he's going to need a true run race and he probably still finds one too good but i don't think many ahead of him have shown the ability that he has previously so i'm more than willing to take a chance in a wide open race that he can go and win a second g1.