5:40 hampton court

the sectional virgins will tell you kings gambit can't be beaten and he has been hammered all morning, now approaching 11/8 and that is starting to look short enough on his first try in graded company. he's a nice big colt that is certain to improve, he was very impressive on seasonal reappearance in a competitive handicap and he already has form with one of the other market principles in bracken's laugh having beaten that horse giving him 6lb but that was bracken's laugh's first career run and he has improved a significant amount himself since then.

he was arguably unlucky not to win at chester behind capulet who got first run on a course notorious for such things. he picked up smartly to try and run the o'brien horse down and lost nothing in defeat. he's been freshened up a bit since then but he looks a horse all about speed and i would prefer to see him dropped back in trip or at least on an easier course. 

the well fancied horse that day at chester was jayarebe and although he lost, it is pretty easy to see why. he is a strong, stridey, lengthy, relentless gallopy type rather than a horse who is ever going to enjoy chester and i am more than willing to give him another chance after routing a solid field at newmarket on his seasonal reappearance, running on very strongly once he met the rising ground, keeping on through the line. he's not drawn well here in 12 for a horse that likes to be up on the pace but that is priced in and i think he's undervalued at roughly 12 on the exchange or 9/1 each way first four. he soundly beat caviar heights that day and there is no real reason that form will be reversed and the likes of bellum justum and portland have shown their limitations in recent outings so i don't think they are big dangers if jayarebe is back to his gallopy best.

the interesting runner is first look. he only has a maiden win to his name but he ran second in a group one in france the last day. that form with ghostwriter and diego velazquez ties in with the likes of capulet, who beat bracken's laugh and al musmak here so we can roughly judge how good it was and the answer is meh, he's short here imo. he's unraced on ground anywhere near as fast as this and the track is going to be very different to anything he's seen previously. his form prior to the group one second is average at best and he is very flattered by his rating right now but he will likely have to run up to something like that to win here, which i don't think he is capable of. 

i'm fading the market in basically every race today. i am such a dumb cuck. 

4:25 gold cup

i'm not going to write much about this race. my bets are antepost and no one gives a fuck what prices i got two months ago but i've bet gregory and i'm still pretty keen on him. think even the 5/1 available is fine. he's going to relish this distance. if i was coming at this race with no previous position i would probably bet sweet william at 22/1. he's not genuine and he needs all of the help he can get from his jockey but he is immensely talented, stays the trip well and that's really all you can ask for from a 22/1 poke. he's very tough to win with and he looked like he didn't want to be on the race track at the start of the race he won the last day so there are many, many concerns but you won't find many horses with this amount of ability at 22/1 in any race this week. 

3:45 ribblesdale

much like the first race i don't think this is very deep. the lingfield oaks trial contested by you got to me, danielle and rubies are red was a bit of a mess and it didn't appear to work out too well in the oaks with you got to me weakening in to fourth beaten a fair way while rubies are red was out the back the whole race. she may not have loved that track and could be more at home on this more traditional, galloping track but she has a lot to prove now. danielle reportedly didn't love lingfield that day either but she was fairly tame in the finish that day and needs to have improved a lot to trouble the front two.

this is going to end up being the second race of the day that i am fading the early drift. all of the money has been for kalpana but i'm not too keen on that horse. she was a 76 rated handicapper two months ago and now she's second fav in one of the premier group races for three year old fillies. her win in newmarket was exceptional but she beaten soundly and fairly by friendly soul the last day and while it was still a good, strong run and she shaped as if this extra two furlongs would suit, it showed up some limitations in her ability and just not at all convinced she is this star horse that the market is certain she is. 

diamond rain has the best form on offer when beating two, maybe three, very nice horses at newbury on quick ground the last day. labelled as good but the times a bit later in the card would suggest the ground was drying out all the time in the bright sunshine. she travelled like the best horse in that race and picked up when asked to win comfortably and being out of a 1m4f winner there is every chance she improves again for this step up in trip. she's a lovely big, strong filly that should continue to get better with every run so i find it quite tough to see her not involved in this race. but the market doesn't love it and i'm probably just wrong. but i'm not. she's good. the rest are not. maybe. 3.05 right now, will likely drift some more and if she does we simply bet it again. 

drew a blank yesterday across five races. shortest price bet was 8/1 so no real damage done. that was a minefield of a card yesterday but the market did a fairly good job whereas i did not. three favourites won as well as well supported horses such as running lion winning too. market is king.  

2:30 norfolk 

whistlejacket is a big, thick sprinty type and he was much too fast for previous winner arizona blaze on second start. arizona blaze went and won next time out from camille pissarro who was strongly supported ahead of the coventry at the start of the week so both bits of form are likely quite strong with arizona blaze showing that he can perform on faster ground the last day, which we have not seen from whistlejacket but being a full brother to little big bear who won at this meeting on rattling ground, there is plenty of hope that whistlejacket will handle the ground just fine and i find it quite tough to see that curragh form being reversed having been rather dominant. arizona blaze's win the last day was up in trip over 6f and he stayed on well that day being out of a 1m2f winner and this drop back in trip doesn't seem entirely ideal. 

i don't think this is a particularly deep race for a royal ascot group two and i would be quite surprised if something outside of the top three in the market were to win here. i'm very keen on shareholder each way at 9/1 but the market has been against this horse quite a lot in the last 24 hours and i'm unsure why. he was as short as 6.5 yesterday and this morning he drifted out to over 13 on the exchange and at the time of writing he is trading at 12 and if all is well, that looks a very big price but there has to be some concern right now. a big, striking colt, he was slow away, keen and green on debut at beverley but he travelled like a dream, picked up nicely and battled all the way to the line against three horse who had all already won a race and i is very tough for me to think he will not have learned an enormous amount from that race, beating the reopposing moving force, now on 7lb worse terms for a short head win but the fahey two year olds have been electric this season and beating that horse on first course appearance can be upgraded significantly. i like this price and this horse a lot but the favourite could be very good and the weakness in the market has me a bit confused. 

aesterius was the other option for james doyle having won at bath on debut, quickened nicely late to put it bed but that form is nothing to shout about. there was a next time out winner but it came from the ed walker stable and his horses have been improving two stone for a run all year. the market has shown a bit of support for this horse over the last 24 hours which has to be of some interest but on what he shown on debut versus what shareholder and whistlejacket have shown, i can't get there for win purposes but as i said, this is not a deep race and he is open to plenty of improvement. 

4:25 prince of wales

good luck. auguste rodin could bolt up. inspiral could colt up. both could chuck it in. i think the market has priced them up relatively correctly and i don't want to be for or against either at current prices. there isn't too much pace in the race but snobbish is in here as a pace setter for blue rose cen so i would expect it to be decent enough and i'm not convinced inspiral stays. she cost me an absolute fortune when she beat warm heart on the line over this trip in MERICA! but flat, round track with short run in is very different to what she will face here but she is certainly good enough. happy to put a line through the last day. draw is meh but she's never going to be too close to the pace anyway. 

auguste is the pig of all pigs. he doesn't want 1m2f either. i think he is the worst price of the two but also the most likely winner. if he has the right attitude he goes well but he was also beaten comfortably the last day over this trip when he appeared to run genuinely enough. i have major concerns about him but also don't want to lay him at the same time. his issues are priced in more than enough. 

the rest is a minefield and i think you can nick some place value and there is some decent win upside with real questions to be answered about the two horses taking up the majority of he market share. horizon dove, blue rose cen and royal rhyme all have their best form on softer ground than this while alflaila has suffered some setbacks in her prep and will very likely come on a lot for this run. which leaves a couple of no hopers down the bottom and lord north. and lord north is the bet at 16/1 each way. he's eight now and recent ratings would suggest slightly declined from his peak but i'm not 100% sure about that. the form of his staying on third at sandown is very good now that charyn has hosed up in a good group one yesterday and he has very few doubts still remaining. he stays the trip, he's won at the course before, he goes well on the ground and he has an excellent jockey booking. i don't think he's one of the best three horses in the race if everything was to each horses liking but there are doubts surrounding every single runner in this race and i think he has the least serious questions to answer out of all runners. i don't think he's enormous value but i would bet him at 14/1, and i would maybe still bet him at 12/1 but at 16 (one unnamed dogshit book that talks a good game but doesn't stand on business was standout price 18/1 at royal ascot and refused to take more than £20), i think there is a small squeak of value. 

3:45 duke of cambridge

rogue millenium for £1.6m might be one of the worst purchases in the history of racing but probably should be the fav here although there is no chance whatsoever i would be backing this horse at 3/1. 2nd in a group one may well be the best form on offer but she also has a lot of form that wouldn't be good enough to win this. i also believe the 'luckless' run she got the last day on seasonal reappearance is being overplayed and over bet. there was a gap, repeatedly there was a gap and she simply wasn't good enough to go through it when first asked. there was a bit of bumping and she had to wait a little but i don't think she was good enough on the day and the price discrepancy between her and the winner is too big.

and that is where my bet in this race comes. ocean jewel was a real luckless runner in the group one at leopardstown behind rogue millenium last year when she was swinging away on the bridle as the race developed and she was making ground on rogue millenium but the latter got a clear run and ocean jewel did not, for around a furlong she was stuck behind horses before running on again late in midfield. she was many, many lengths better than that result. she looked like she had improved again from three to four when she travelled like the best horse in that race at the curragh and she quickened up to lead still hard on the bridle and when asked to go and win she did it with minimum fuss and very little riding from the jockey. she is 3lb worse off with rogue millenium for that run and now that this race is run on the round course the draw isn't very appealing but at 9 on the exchange, she is wildly overpriced with the market seemingly failing to understand how rapidly these fillies can improve, and that very much appears the case here. 

running lion is plenty short enough now having taken some money. was suppose to be a middle distance type, maybe even a derby type last year but that never materialised so they started dropping her back in trip. well supported at epsom back over a mile the last day and the racing post report will have you believe she was denied a clear run but that simply isn't true. there was a big gap up the rail and she took it but she wasn't fast enough to get through and she fell away without any real effort to maintain. maybe the course was partly to blame because she seemed to hang in to the rail a bit but i don't think she's quick enough to beat true milers and i'm not entirely sure she retains all of her ability either. best performances have come on slower ground. 

royal dress would be of huge interest with some rain having been without any luck the last day at epsom but all of her best form is on much softer ground. she is the most improved horse in this race and i do think she is good enough given the right circumstances. at 22 it doesn't cost much to find out whether her improvement will translate to this ground - career worst performance on fastest ground she tried - so i will have a bet at 22 because level of ability doesn't match the price but very obvious reason to think she won't run her race. 

3:05 queen's vase

are we sure illinois is even good? someone certainly thinks so because he's gone off a strong fav in each of his last three starts but he looks like a fucking donkey. he did stay on strongly off a fast pace that he set in lingfield the last day and the form looks very strong on paper given how well the winner ran in the derby but he was readily brushed aside that day with nothing else getting in to the race. he carried his head high, he lugged to his left on the fast ground, which he will see again here. i think there are enough question marks about this horse to not want to bet him at this sort of price against a couple of rapidly improving young stayers.

ryan moore has chosen to ride illinois over stablemates highbury and the equator, as well as grosvenor square before he was taken out but i am more than happy to fade the ryan moore decision. higbury drifted in the market and was strongly inconvenienced by a nothing pace on his debut when behind birdman, who runs again here, but once he found his feet he stayed on best of all over the mile and a half. he showed marked improvement the next day against the horse who separated himself and birdman on debut when reversing that form by eight lengths in a very comfortable win on fast ground, looking better and better the further he went, with the runner up winning a nice maiden on his next start to strengthen the form of both runs. birdman beat him for pace and again won through pace on his next start upped to 1m5f in another slowly run race and in a more stamina laden affair, i would expect to see highbury in a much better light. i wouldn't be desperate to fire away on this horse at 7/2ish though. 

mina rashid was all stamina when winning at chester on his last start and although that form is very poor, he was strongly supported late that day and showed a very willing attitude for a stable who's runners have been improving plenty for the run this year, especially those that came out early when the balding stable was struggling. the hood may have had a big impact on his improved form but the step up from a mile clearly suited too and he looks like a real staying type. chester can teach a young horse a lot and that is just another reason to think this horse can take another big step forward. he certainly does need to improve a bunch to trouble the market principles but in a race where i think the fav has a bad attitude and is poorly priced as a result, as well as there being a vulnerability about one of the next two in the market - birdman seeing out this race off a gallop as strong as he will have seen before - there is plenty of value in the place market with some real upside in the win part of an each bet at 16/1. 

2:30 queen mary

another juvenile guessing game. there will be a lot of talk about the draw and how horses can or can't win because of the draw bias but that is a bit of a myth. the only thing you need to know about the draw is where the speed is. the fastest horses traditionally wins the sprints and royal ascot regardless of draw. bradsell won low last year and the year before, big evs and crimson advocate won high and the year before little big bear won low on the same day that dramatised won high with nature strip won down the middle. you would be hard pushed to say that any of those horses isn't extremely speedy and extremely talented and the draw simply did not matter because they won from all over the track on relatively similar ground. 

that begs the question: who is the speediest filly in here? i don't have a fucking clue. i have an opinion on who the fastest finishing horse is but pace generally holds up, as it did with pretty much every horse i mentioned, so while i will be betting that horse i think racing style may be against her. that horse is truly enchanting at around the 8.6 mark on betfair right now. she took a while to get going on debut over an easy five at tipperary but the further they went the better she looked and her turn of foot once she knew her job was impressive. she wasn't necessarily fancied to get the job done that day having gone off third favourite but that looked a warm enough race based on the future entries of the horses and she readily put that race to bed. better ground and a stiffer track with a better pace to aim at and i would think we will see better from her but as i said, i am concerned about tracking positioning because i doubt she will be right up on the pace early. 

the richard hannon trained xanthe may well be the fastest of these and the race she won on debut is very solid form without being traditionally good. she was restless pre race and reluctant to load in to the stalls but when they came out she showed a lot of early pace before fighting on very gamely to beat two boys with course experience in reposado and the well fancied hallasan. she's not overly big but she was mentally juvenile and the way the race played out she will have learned a lot from that debut. this occasion is much bigger, however, and she certainly needs to have learned from that experience because if not then there is a chance that she could lose this before she gets on the track. that debut win came over this course and distance so there are no track concerns and coming back to a place she has seen before may help with the young attitude she possessed that day. there is a lot to like about her and at 30-32 range i am more than happy to take a chance.

miss rascal may have to make her own running from a very low draw and that is not ideal. she did win from the front on her second start but that was a small field and the time wasn't anything to shout about. the closing sectional on her debut coming from the back of the pack got a lot of people excited and she is likely better having a pace to aim at and while this type of race is run at a very strong gallop, there is every chance she gets stuck in a five or six horse group of horses drawn very low and not have that elite pace to aim at that would see her in the best light. 

i'm more than happy to be against kassaya. she looks like a nice horse but over further. this race is traditionally won by a pure sprinter and she didn't look like she had the necessary speed when winning on her second start having been readily picked up by point neuf on debut. don't think either bits of form are good enough to go and win this race. her best hope is that they go much too fast early and she can pick up the pieces but at this price i am more than happy to side step her. 

 4:25 st james palace

rosallion ew at 7/2 and pray you get the good variance. looked a special horse when picking up very smartly to win in ireland the last day and has fitness on his side now which he did not have against notable speech in the guineas and just got beat for a bit of speed on first run in 200 days. very impressive at this track as a two year old so we know he will handle the course. ground almost got away from him in the curragh with the rain earlier in the day. no such worries here. there are no question marks. the other horse may just be very, very good but now has less things in his favour. 

henry longfellow is a disgustingly short price. can win, maybe, but you are paying a ridiculous aidan o'brien premium for a horse who won some small field races as a juvenile. nothing went right in france the last day and you can put a line through it but these two horses are significantly better than anything in the field that day and i struggle to see henry longfellow winning this. if you're taking the 9/2 what the fuck are you thinking. this horse should be at least 8/1. probably a rocket ship and wins by half the track but i'm not paying that price to find out. 

3:45 kings stand

big evs has elite speed and showed his versatility when giving another horse the lead the last day and still pissed up in arguably a career best performance given circumstances. good luck catching him giving up 6lb. 

people will tell you he can't win because of how far he was beaten in his only start against older horses last year but there is a massive difference between a two year old racing against three and four year olds versus a three year old of his size and ability racing against older horses. the 24lb he received that day sounds like a lot, and it is, but two year olds having their fourth start are still very juvenile and unaware whereas the winner was a four year old having his 18th course start. that winner was down the field in very ordinary novice races as a two year old and the second, multiple group 1 winner highfield princess, she was beaten in a handicap off a ridiculously low mark of 57 on her fourth start as a juvenile. horses come a long, long way mentally and physically between two and three and the weight for age does an okay job at bridging that gap but cases of two year olds racing against older horses are rare enough that it is tough to measure. 

the sprinting division is and has been very weak in the UK for some time now and the fact that regional is second favourite says a lot. he's a nice horse and he's improved a decent amount over the last year or two but he's listed to group three quality generally and he shouldn't be beating a horse of true group one ability. the two favourites completely bombed out the day he won his group one, finished last and second to last and i think calling him a group one horse would be disingenuous. 

the australian horse is probably the biggest danger because despite patchy form on the face of things, that's going to happen in a much deeper division. the horse travelled like the best of them on UK debut but fell in a hole on soft ground on first run for 200 days. she will be much better today back on faster ground with fitness confirmed. the only concern here, and it's reflected in the market, is the different track. used to racing on flat, dull, nothing tracks in australia she will face an entirely different test at ascot and that could take her by surprise. 

believing was a benefit of seventeen front runners forcing an extremely unforgiving pace the last day when bolting up on first run over 5f and i would be surprised if he were to reproduce that 10 days later in a much better race. twilight calls was taken off her feet in a similarly blistering race on seasonal reappearance and arguably still should have won so she's a danger. decent each way bet at 11/1, 12/1. 

3:05 coventry

the guessiest of all guessing games. 11/2 the field of once raced two year olds. good fucking luck. cowardofthecountry is fav because he beat whistlejacket fairly comfortably on debut but that horse pretty clearly needed the run and or the drop in trip that he got on second career start when bolting up from a next time out winner. on paper the form is strong but entirely different circumstances are the reason that form looks excellent. could be good nonetheless and stayed the six furlongs strongly that day. big horse that will likely improve over time. paying a premium because of connections.

good battle between andesite and yah mo be there on debut with the latter looking incredibly green and juvenile so i'm a little surprised to see the former roughly half the price when one looked like they would improve much more for the run than the other. form of that race is as decent as you could hope it to have turned out having only been a month ago. both will have learned a lot from that and would expect both to be sharper for it. interesting line of form with the 5th from that race who ran behind another in here the next day.

the benefit of experience wasn't enough for proud to be fox when racing behind catalyse the last day and the winner was very impressive. he was quite professional, apart from an untidy start, and that is in line with how richard fahey has had his two year olds ready this season so i would not expect a bunch of improvement based on fitness but natural two year old improvement from race one to race two should be enough to see this horse involved in the race and i would be surprised if he wasn't. one of two i'm taking against the field at 11/1+.

the other is arran who is priced more in the 25-30 range and that looks ridiculous. a big, striking colt who was keen and green the last day but he strode out really well up the hill at newmarket having picked up quickly to put a couple of lengths between himself and the field. he was benefit of track position that day and they were closing on him late over 5f but he was never in any trouble and never asked a serious question. plenty of size and scope with this horse and interestingly two horses he beat on debut run again here, both of who won their next starts, and both are shorter in the market by 10+ points and for the life of me i can't work out why. arran had them readily covered the last day and with natural improvement i can't see any reason that he is wouldn't be able to do the same again. the draw is not ideal and he might find himself trapped on the outside without cover but that's not enough to warrant this sort of price. he looks like a lovely horse. 

catalyse could be a very smart horse and should be a fair bit closer to the head of the market while arran is overpriced and has plenty of scope to improve. don't sleep on rashabar at 50/1+. he's a maiden with an awful lot of ability. behind two very smart horses on debut before being drawn widest at chester on his second start. 

2:30 queen anne

big rock's career defining moment was in qe2 over course and distance but that form is close to 10lb better than anything else he's ever shown and questions should be asked of all jockeys in behind that day so i doubt that is big rock's true level of ability and i imagine that level of form is even less likely on fast ground but i do also think this is a much better horse on a nice straight galloping track rather than round a bend like he has been seeing in france. nothing went right at newbury the last day having been down on his nose coming out of the gates and with so much pace up front that day it was difficult to get back in to the race and maintain enough energy to be involved at the finish. stable form a concern and sheer number of horses that will force the pace will make life very difficult. 13/2 now and that is reasonable all things considered but not a number i'm willing to back.  

the win in dubai was improved form for facteur cheval and that level would be the best 'true' form on offer imo and given this horses consistency i agree he should be favourite but the peak of this horses ability is not high enough relative to others to think that he should be shorter than current price of 4/1ish. most likely winner, stays the trip really well and doubt he will be far away off a pace he will enjoy but embrace some variance in a tight enough race. much like most of the head of the market he may be a better horse on soft ground and this will be the fastest he will have seen. 

charyn another who is extremely consistent but also another that does enjoy some cut in the ground. i think this horse is nicely improved this year but he hasn't beaten anything of note and i do wonder whether his ratings flatter him a bit right now and i would suggest his price of around 4/1 certainly does. chasing home audience the last day is bad form and the fact that witch hunter ran on for third beyond the market principles tells you everything you need to know about the strength of that race. audience is improving at a good rate and she certainly showed a lot of speed the last day but the race fell apart and i would suggest she would need to improve again to post a good enough performance to win this race. 

more than happy to bet maljoom at 8/1 each way with four places at hills. yet to really find out whether this horses retains all of the ability that saw him finish a very unlucky fourth at royal ascot two years ago and has only raced twice since then but easy to forgive both of those runs. first one was after almost 500 days off the course and the second was in a five runner affair with no pace and he was forced to make the running having been heavily bet at post. he's a much better horse from the back of the field and he will love the way this race will be run. haggas horse having his second start of the season is a very likely big improver, he handles the ground will and although his draw is not ideal it shouldn't matter too much with given style of racing. if he's back to his three year old best on first run since that it is conceivable that he may be, he's no 10/1 poke here with absolutely nothing to find. 

docklands needs to improve on all known form but he's an elite handicapper and the jump from there to here is not as big as often suggested and this race will be run in the manner of a big field handicap so there is a chance of a surprise win for the horse running in his first group one. i wouldn't think this is a natural group horse in the general small field runnings of those type of races but circumstances are very different at this meeting. 

 1:45 manifesto

interesting race. trying to figure out who has been most impacted by running at cheltenham is random number generator but i do think it is important to note that grey dawning and ginny's destiny ran on the stiffer new course in a well run race on soft/heavy ground two days after the arkle and despite staying 3m, grey dawning got very tired up the hill so i absolutely would not be taking 2.1x on a horse that i think had the hardest race of all of these runners at the festival.

ginnys destiny made a mistake two out and lost about a length, beaten slightly more than that at the line behind a tired horse so probably not good enough to reverse at true peak but that probably won't be the case for either and i do think the price discrepancy is a little disrespectful but i'm not certain there is any value in taking 9/2 on a horse that did have a tough race and is now six runs deep in to the season, all on softish ground at a stiff track. 

il etait tempts will be popular after staying on the arkle and would expect him to be a touch fresher than the other two but he jumps like a pig and on all known form he has half a stone to find. whether the others run up to that i'm doubtful ofc but it's more than enough to think this 5/2, 3/1 range is tight enough. 

i bet colonel harry at cheltenham and he was given a questionable ride, never put in to the race at any stage when the race was developing 20 lengths in front of him and he ran on late for a fair finish and i would suspect he had the easiest race at cheltenham of the four runners that went there so i can see why the market has come for him a bit but he may just not be good enough. i'm fine with leaving the 18-20's bu if you got the 33s overnight and are happy with the tragedy that is betting overnights then good for you.

i'm going to bet blow your wad at 14/1 and be sad when he clearly isn't good enough but i am very much of the opinion that the front three had very hard races at cheltenham and although this horse absolutely has to improve a stone to win, i don't think the market has fully grasped how good he was in the pendil. admittedly a weak race relative to this but tamurhas was quite readily beaten that day despite the small winning margin, jockey didn't have to ask blow your wad any questions to regather himself and quicken up to retain his lead when challenged and i think he's better than than that win. still only six, he's improving (may well have improved for the first time cheekpieces, maybe they don't work as well again) but this horse is a flat track bully. all of his wins have been on flat tracks, finished a fair 6th in a handicap behind ginnys destiny at cheltenham when stated that he hated the track and was never traveling. a much better chaser than he ever was a hurdle and is still improving. i doubt he wins but at 14's for a horse very much going in the right direction coming in fresher than everything else on a track/trip that suits, i have no real questions other than ability ceiling but for that i believe there is hope.

3:30 gold cup

fav going to be tough to beat but this ground can throw up a result and he ran a few shockers as a hurdler in this ground. he is obviously a significantly better horse these days and over fences and he has plenty of wins in soft but if there is a reason he gets beat, it likely will be the ground. the gold cup he won last year was an awful race and they set it up for him by going very quick up front while he sat out the back and picked them off as they all pulled up and fell around him. he got back to his best the last day by making all and that will turn this in to a very different race for him than the one he won last year so tactics are going to be interesting.

i think this is a very good race so i'm more than happy to take him on and the one i landed on weeks ago was gerri colombe. i got some 11/1 and 12/1 win only but i would also be perfectly happy betting the 7/1 each way four places that is still available today. happy to almost throw out the run the last day, sometimes good horses run bad races for certain reasons and the fav has done that previously too. gerri colombe has always looked every bit a gold cup horse and was an unlucky loser in the rsa at the festival last year when flying up the hill behind the real whacker over two furlongs shorter. they didn't real care about the last day and although they were disappointed with the way he ran, this has been his target all season and he is kept fresh ready for this. he loves the mud and he stays well, i have zero question marks about this horse and i think he improves again for this test. i'm a huge fan. 

fastorslow can't win. he beat galopin at the back end of last year when galopin was coming off the back of a very gruelling gold cup and he clearly did not run his race then people convinced himself they were even remotely close ability wise when fastorslow beat him again in a 2m4f race that was run at a crawl of a pace for 2m. the last day really showed us who the better horse was in a comfortable win in a relatively slowly run 3m on a flat track. this is a very different race and for a horse that is much more about speed and has been flattered to be so close to galopin three times because of significantly beneficial circumstances, i just can not have this horse winning a competitive, well run gold cup over 3m2f in heavy ground.

l'homme presse is a nice horse and he looked smart when beating yesterday's winner protektorat at lingfield but he struggled at ascot the next day and has something to prove now. he won the rsa well a couple of years ago but i'm not certain this ort of dour test is up his street. talented individual but i think he finds at least one too good. corach rambler beat fastorslow here last year and is only on four pound worse terms but he has a different seasonal target in mind and i'm not sure they will want him to have too hard of a race here in this ground with the grand national only a month away. he certainly deserves to take his chance and he is going to stay better than pretty much every other runner so he is not without a chance. 

bravemansgame will be better suited by the way this race may be run. they went very fast from the front last year and he paid the price late on when galopin came to claim him but while there is still some pace in this renewal, i doubt they go quite as fast and he may well have a chance to hold on if he is prominent early again. i think he is probably past his best overall though. 

2:50 albert bartlett

i hate this race. i think it's too much for novice hurdlers to take on at such a young age and it's been a good while since a winner of this race turned out to be a very smart horse down the line and i do think that is somewhat due to how much this race can take out of a horse early in their career. and it's frustrating this year because i think specifically gidleigh park has a very promising chasing career in his future and i'm not certain he can or will realise that potential after what is traditionally a 3m sprint on the stiffer of the two courses at cheltenham. 

readin' tommy wrong has drifted out to a much more likeable price this morning but i don't particularly like his form and less so now having watched how mid ile atlantique is in the baring bingham. i'm not at all convinced he stays 2m4f so readin' tommy wrong outstaying him doesn't seem like much of a feat to me. mullins didn't seem too hot on this horse prior and again after he doesn't seem in love but he will be one of those that does stay a good trip and he likely won't be beat for stamina here. i can't bet this horse as a favourite in a competitive little race.

gidleigh park as mentioned is a horse i love and i think he will be better for three miles. his form doesn't read all that strongly but he looked like he needed further when grinding his way back to the front after being headed the last day at this track. the money is down this morning as he has moved from 7 overnight down to 5.7 at time of typing and that move is enough to keep me away from betting him. if i was getting 11/2 first four i would be betting but 4/1 and even 7/2 in some places, i'm not interested. 

i'm happy to pass over captain teague as well. i do think he's a very nice horse and he's a love big chasing type as well and the way he travelled through the challow was that of a smart horse but i would note that nicholls had stated a few times in the lead up to the festival that this horse would go for the 2m5f if theground was more testing and would only go for this race on drier ground so i think there are some concerns about stamina for this horse and he did get very weary in bottomless ground in the challow. we can only assume that nicholls decided to come here after ballyburn went for the 2m5f and i think he is plenty vulnerable enough based on those decisions and comments.

mullins has another nice horse in here in dancing city and he stayed on strongly to win over 2m6f the last day, confirming the promise of the previous run and building on the positivity that mullins has had about this horse since he arrived in the yard. the form ahead of predators gold is abysmal though despite the figures suggesting it is some of the best form coming in to the race. he will also have had a hard race that day and this is going to be another gruelling test so i'm not at all convinced 40 days between testing runs is going to be helpful in a finish here and i suspect he might find something too strong up the hill, but i wouldn't put anyone off an each way bet if you are so inclined, i think he runs a decent enough race. 

easy enough to pass over the likes of lecky watson, high class hero and chigorin here. although i did like the way johnnywho stayed on in the challow in tough conditions. he's a small enough horse and the run the last day came quick enough after a tough one in the challow so you can forgive him for running a bit below par that day, i think he has had a hard enough season already but i thought he was very promising on seasonal debut and i bet him in the challow so he is a horse i have some time for. i'm just concerned this is one run too many. 

the one i have taken is the jukebox man at 20/1 four places. he ran in the challow behind captain teague and although he wasn't quite good enough that day, he travelled very nicely and stayed on well to the line but he was still very green and juvenile that day. he will have learned a lot and he looks a thorough stayer in the making. he will likely improve for this trip and he's being brought along nice and slowly on purpose. big, strong, chasing type that is improving with every run and i think he can ho on enough to run a big race here. 

1:30 triumph

this is a much weaker triumph than we have seen in recent years and naturally as a result it is a more wide open affair but the market should be pretty informative given that every useful horse comes from the same stable but i do think the market is currently mispriced mostly just because the market is kind of following the willie mullins jockey bookings right now. 

willie sounded keen enough on majborough in a few interviews because he had picked up a training injury prior to his run in dublin and will have needed that run when third in a g1 on his seasonal reappearance and first run for the stable since coming over from france behind two horse who he runs against again here, with another few in here today just behind him. he travelled well enough on the front and mark walsh did not ask him to do too much until he had already been headed so it is easy to see why there is a lot of improvement expected from this lad and i would be surprised if he wasn't involved in the finish in some capacity. i'm a bit surprised he is not at the head of the market here.

storm heart has taken over as favourite and he went off favourite when second in that juvenile hurdle involving half the field in dublin. he had already had one impressive win going in to dublin and he had five flat runs in france so he was a fair bit more experienced than most of the field that day so i expect something to improve past him today. the only reason i can really see that he has been backed is because stable jockey paul townend rides him but that is more by default than actual choice. been noted previously that willie wanted danny mullins back on board kargese because how much he has learned about her riding in the last two runs and mark walsh auto rides the jp horse. 

nurburgring had a lot of experience coming from the flat and has had two hurdles runs already so while i think experience is very useful here, i would be surprised if there wasn't something in here that was good enough to beat him because the two hurdles runs he has had were a step below what some of the less experienced horses have already shown and i would think they would be more likely to improve again so i am more than happy to pass him over at a tight enough price. he was running on nicely the last day behind kargese and wasn't beaten much at all and his action suggests the over night rain will be a benefit.

i'm taking the 8/1 each way four places on bunting because i strongly feel like he will have learned the most from the dublin race when he looked very juvenile and green throughout. his jumping was sketchy, and that is a concern, but he looks to have a real engine. he was just making a forward move at the second last, still hard on the bridle, but he made a mistake as the front few horses were quickening and he lost a few lengths which he very quickly made up with a little nudge from his jockey, was an impressive move and he was running on nicely under very little pressure up the straight but when he jumped the last, one of his better jumps of the race, he tried to hang inside and ran in to a wall of horses before switching back out and running on again better than anything in front when he was finally straightened up. he may well be fourth or even five choice based on jockey bookings but there is very little between these horse and i would be confident that he will be a lot better today than he was the last. 

2:50 ryanair

okay let's start with stage star. i don't like him, especially coming off the back of an unexplained poor run. it's not the first time he has done that and he has managed to bounce back but in weaker races than this. he does well at this track but he's never really beaten anything, and certainly nothing of this level. won a handicap off 155 fairly comfortably and that's impressive enough but it wasn't a particularly strong renewal of the paddy power and despite being taken on for the lead they didn't go that strong early with everything in behind fairly keen. his win at the festival last year was nothing to shout about either - mighty potter went off 4/6 having beaten a grand national horse over 2m4f . he's going to get taken on for the lead here and they will go a much better gallop than he has had to round this course previously so his tradition of getting headed then running on again is less likely this time.

protektorat is one that will likely force the pace with him stepped down in trip having travelled sweetly over 3m a lot lately out but i kind of feel like he needs to be stepped up in trip much like neptune collonge, think the problem is his relative lack of pace rather than ability to stay. he has been getting to line strongly after getting outpaced so i'm just not so sure this is for him despite everyone calling for him to drop back in trip. stable going very well and they're excellent at placing horses in the right races so i may just be talking shit but he's not for me. 

i think banbridge is talented enough to win but i don't think he runs up to his best on this ground so i'm willing to pass him over not that he has been bet in to what i thought was roughly the right price. capodanno won a bit of a sprint last time out which was a surprise because he's much more of a stayer and he's being aimed at the grand national after this so i'll be very confused if he manages to win this but it will likely be a fierce pace so he could pick up some pieces late if he's not too outpaced mid race. 

i've always thought this is the perfect trip for envoi allen and he won very well last year but the drop off is going to come. he's a 10 year old now and while he's been racing less and less to keep him fresh for cheltenham every year, where he has an incredible record, i just can't get there to bet a 10 year old in a deeply competitive, strongly run race in softer ground at this sort of price despite thinking he should be the favourite. i think he is also a better horse on slightly better ground than this so i have plenty enough concerns to not bet him here. think he might get outstayed late. 

stupidly enough i have ended up on ahoy senor at ~22 on exchange. this is a very tough days racing and i don't have much confidence of a win but i think he's a bit overpriced for one that stays so well. yeah, he probably doesn't want it as sharp as this like a few in here but stiffer new course will help and so will the end to end gallop that they are likely to go so think he'll be staying on late in the day. he has some real upside to his game and some of the numbers he has posted just last year would see him be very much involved in this from an ability stand point. he's going to need a true run race and he probably still finds one too good but i don't think many ahead of him have shown the ability that he has previously so i'm more than willing to take a chance in a wide open race that he can go and win a second g1. 

1:30 turners

have some bets on facile vega at bigger prices from a week or two ago and the consensus seems to be that he will be better at 2m4f of which i'm not certain but it is definitely worth the try. i just think he's by far the most talented horse in this race and the irish form is superior to the english so while he does have wins on better ground, i'm still of the opinion that he will benefit from the softer ground than he has encountered the last twice. saying all of that, i'm happy with the price i got but i would absolutely not be touching him in this race at the current prices because his last two runs have been terrible but again, that's probably still better than the english form. 

grey dawning has improved a significant amount for chasing this season and likely would have beaten ginny's destiny here in december if not for making a shuddering error two out before staying on again, now three pound better off i find it very tough to see how ginny's destiny can hold that form on ground that favours grey dawning a touch more than it does ginny's destiny. both improved a good few pound again in winning their next starts so it is reasonable to assume that ginny could have improved enough but that's a lot of faith to put in an eight year old. 

iroko the obviously interesting runner. won the martin pipe last year and ran a strong staying third in the aintree g1 before bolting up on chasing debut. the horse he beat had won a g2 over hurdles in france and won a handicap off 135 over fences since but that form isn't all that strong in comparison to the front three and he has to improve a significant amount to win this but as a six year old with just one chase start it is expected that he will improve markedly in the near future. the market, however, does seem to be relatively cool on this horse after four months off the track. has been doing all his best work later in races over 2m4f and the g1 that he stayed on strongly in was over 3m so every chance he wants further than this so would likely need this to develop in to a bit of a test. better for him that this race is run on the new course.

i'm very interested in colonel harry in a couple of markets because i think at his best he has very little to find to fill a place here, especially if you can get 4/1ish in the four place market. he's coming off the back off a bad run in the scilly isles but that was a farce of a race the way it was run and it was on much faster ground than colonel harry wants. he's a 3m point winner (would be duel winner if not for a fall at the last when up seven lengths) and he stayed on strongly to win his g2 at wetherby in january so the stiffer new course should suit. the form isn't as good as some of these but the horse he beat quite nicely there was only beaten three lengths by ginny's destiny, in the race that grey dawning was chasing the winner down, on his previous start and ran up to the same mark behind colonel harry. he needs to improve but a stiffer track and softer ground will suit and i think it's well within his scope to improve enough, with everything in his favour, to sneak a minor place here.

letsbeclearaboutit has a fair run in him back at 2,4f after trying 2m and 3m the last twice, did win a g3 over this trip early in the season and was third in a g1 going off 5/4 so they certainly think he's good enough for this grade. fourth in the albart bartlett last year. doesn't have the upside of some of these and is nine now so minor places for him might be the best hge can hope for. sharjah just not as good of a chaser and easy to see why they waited until he was 10 to go over fences. zanahiyr is interesting, some champion hurdle form makes him competitive but his jimping has been scrappy at best; if he cleans up the errors he certainly has the ability to be involved. it's a very competitive race but outside of the top three, i think colonel harry has the most upside at this track, trip and ground. small bet at 40/1 each way the three, slightly bigger bet on the four place market at anywhere that I can get filled from 5.0 and above. worth noting how poorly the nicholls' horses are running, kind of gone under the radar with the whole henderson situation but his four runners have barely beaten a horse and stay away fay scoped dirty when he came back in yesterday so one of the 'big three' may well run below his level. 

 3:30 champion chase

el fabiolo should win if he gets round. tends to hit one hard so i don't begrudge anyone that wants to have a flyer on something else in the hope that he doesn't get round but that's pretty much priced in to the market. if we knew they all got round safely then el fabiolo is 1/10 here. 

i have a pretty strong opinion here in the without market and it's that i really want to be against edwardstone. and i've ended up on captain guinness at around 2/1-9/4 range because he will handle the ground, stays well enough and is a consistent horse whereas i think gentleman de mee and elixir du nutz both want faster ground than this to be at their best while boothill and funambule both probably just not good enough.

edwardstone, for me, is a pure two miler and i am not at all convinced that he likes cheltenham because of it. he won the arkle in a very weak renewal and won it well but he has had plenty of other opportunities here and done nothing, including bombing out in this race last year behind enurgemene. he won very well at newbury the last day but he got a completely uncontested lead, was allowed to do what he liked and quickened away from some pretty ordinary horses on the day and that's not going to happen here. gentleman de mee and elix de nutz are both going to contest the pace which likely means that edwardstone sits off them and hopes to pick up the pieces later in the day but if this is end to end which is very well could be, in this ground, for a horse that has done most of his winning on flat tracks, i think it finds him out. 

2:10 brown advisory

fact to file very good too. bit more competitive this race though. looks every bit a gold cup horse of the future and i am annoyed i missed the 10/11 last night. slightly under 1.8 on exchange probably still fine but this is a decent enough little race. 

not at all convinced monty's star is even good, not sure why he is joint second in here after beating the biggest plodder in national hunt racing last time out. will enjoy the ground and stays so no real negatives i'm just not sure he has the ability. did bomb out at cheltenham in the plodders novice over three last year.

i'm of the opinion that we just don't know how good stay away fay actually is because of his running style. he reminds me of big bucks a touch in that he just does enough and stays forever. he won with stamina in both of his chasing wins to start the season then tried to jump out of novice company in a warm race last time out. he has made the running in most of his races the last year or so but with the real whacker and ahoy senor both in competition for the lead they didn't try to push the pace last time out and the race developed in to a bit of a sprint and he got out pointed by capodanno. strayed off a straight line up the straight but ran on again when straightened up and the cheek pieces should help there. there are no natural front runners in this race and given how much he needs this to be a real test of stamina, i would be surprised if they didn't go forward with him again today. not raced on ground this deep but it seems to be drying a shade and he does have form in soft. fact to file might be too good but i would make him a pretty clear fav in the without market and that isn't necessarily the case right now. 

american mike beat fact to file over shorter at start of the season and won over 3m last time but he got incredibly tired late that day and although the form is fine, i would be surprised if he were strong enough in the finish to beat some of these. he's a nice horse but i would much rather see him in something over 2m4f. sandor clegane doesn't look like much of a chase but he does have a bundle of stamina while giovinco probably wants a flatter track to get this trip in this ground. 

yesterday was a bit of a shit show. was good then it wasn't. betmgm had a horror show and were instantly manually accepting bets on stale lines all day because their whole site was fucked so you could get down decent amounts on prices that hadn't existed for 30 minutes and all were settled correctly. unfortunately that's because they almost all fucking lost. apple away was 9/4 joint fav top british in the 4 miler that's less than 4 miles now when on the exchange she was 7.6 to win the race and everything else in that market was bigger than 15 and nemean lion in the champion in same market was 7/2 while iberico lord was 11/10 but they were both 18.5 on the exchange at the time. ranges of outcomes and all that but they were just stale line that never got updated once throughout the day. site is fixed now so edge dead. rip. 

1:30 whatever this race is called now

ballyburn obvious fucking good, form franked, will hose up in a dog shit renewal of a shitty race. mullins has four of the six and the henderson thing simply can't win so will take a ben pauling miracle to take this away from willie. how has henderson decided to run this thing and not the others when he has said that he has no idea why they are running badly? 

ile atlantique was benefit of making the running last time despite mullins saying that wasn't the plan. don't really believe that because he was upside jumping the first and had made the running in each of his three runs prior but every winner on the card at naas that day was leading or very prominent except reading tommy wrong so does make me question how good ile atlantique actually is. won his maiden hurdle as you would expect but beaten every time he's been asked a question. talented enough and this is a shoddy race so probably chases ballyburn home but if they go and try to win the race, as they should, he could get beat by something up the hill for second when he gets tired. 

predators gold is a plodder. he should be in the 3m old boat race on friday. he was in line with dancing city jumping the second last in leopardstown but the winner easily quickened away before the last and it took predators gold forever to get going, finally getting past jetara of all horses. that horse would be 50s in here, form is poverty, track might help rather than flat leopardstown. form the day before behind caldwell potter cut up with fav and second fav bombing out in bottomless ground. i think he's a chance to finish second because he will stay well but he needs to improve a stone to trouble ballyburn. market starting to move towards him though. interesting. 

i think if you really want to bet this race then mercurey top 3 4/1 a touch of value. they really liked this horse early days when he bolted up in his bumper, beat in good ground by two nice horses the next day and got injured on hurdles debut. badly needed the run on return behind lisnagar fortune, the horse has form with reading tommy wrong who beat ile atlantique last time over a different trip though, but the way mercurey travelled in to the race was impressive but got very tired late and was beaten about eight lengths. won with head in chest on next start in a terrible race but if mullins is right and the plan for ile atlantique is not to make the running then this boy is likely to be the one to make it and i doubt there will be a contested lead if ile atlantique is not pushing forward. the english form is terrible and jimmy du seuil isn't much good so the places specifically looks very tidy. mercurey to beat handstands at 2/1 with betfred. 

 4:10 mares

loussiemouth taking a tiny drift this morning and i can only assume that is because of the ground. we've known the trip for weeks and she's been strong enough in the market but the ground is going to come up softer than anything she has seen previously at least in a race as strong as this. g3 at fairyhouse on irish debut and maybe the race after at leopardstown but the ground rode on the good side of soft on the new course at cheltenham last year despite being officially soft and improvement has coincided with running on better ground over the last 14 months. we expect her to stay the trip based on runs in better ground but the question is whether she can do it in deeper ground. she looked like a star when she won in january. 

i think there are a lot of similar questions to be asked about ashroe diamond as well. she ran decent enough races in some novice g1s in 2022 behind marine nationale and facile vega but she only really beat horses she was expected to beat in both of those runs and a soft ground win over jetara may seem like okay form now but jetara improved two stone after a break when returning as a five year old. relatively good ground wins in a horrible g1 at fairyhouse which was basically a g3 and a g2 at doncaster when going off second fav behind gala marceau with the market was very much in the favour of the latter that day. no trip concerns if she handles the ground.

that race at doncaster is very interesting. gala marceau travelled smoothly but two things that you don't see in any reports and something you won't know without watching the race is that she got squeezed out of position just before the second last and lost a couple of lengths which she then had to try and make up but she switched legs right before the last and it was almost like she took a false step and that cost her a bit of forward momentum as well and never had much chance to chase ashroe down after that. ashroe was race fit that day and gala was not. you just have to ignore the last run if you want to back gala here today and that run was too bad to be true so that is something i'm willing to do because she was so good in auteuil at the back end of last year in deep ground. she's still only five and she has a very smart run at cheltenham in the triumph to her name. i would be interested in her in a few markets at current prices before they move. 

love envoi got blasted by lossiemouth last time out and tough to see her reverse that form but she does go well round here and the softer ground won't be any issue for her and neither will the trip so she can certainly go and get a bit closer with the first time cheekpieces. i'm going to end up with too much against ashroe diamond in the without market here but i think she's just much too short in this ground stepping up in class. this is a deep race too. betmgm have love envoi 13/8 best british versus marie's rock, you wear it well and theatre glory and that seems like a very decent way to punt love envoi as well as the w/o and each way stuff. fired too much on this race and will definitely regret it. 

3:30 champion

state man obviously good and probably just wins. got 10lb in hand in an abysmal renewal. rock on ruby went off 11/1 as a 165 rated horse the year he won with 166 rated overturn a 20's poke and they're both half a stone better than the second horse here. iberico lord 10/1 third in having won a handicap off 134 last time is a fucking travesty. 

irish point might be good, i mean he is good, but what the fuck is he doing in here? he was a shorter price for the 3m race later in the week and yeah, he's won at two but in a maiden and two shitty g3 races. he is definitely improving but it is plainly obvious that he improved 10 or so pound for an extra half last season and another half stone on anything he's achieved when upped to 3m the last day. sadly it is still the case that if he runs up to his grade three form he will actually be the one to follow state man home in something called the champion hurdle. grade three form finishing second in a champion hurdle with a 134 handicapper chasing them up the hill. the excitement is unbearable.

iberico rated 143 now and he would probably win off that mark as well but seriously, there has to be a racehorse somewhere that can beat this lad over 2m for some prize money? he won well at cheltenham off a coral cup bottom weight type mark in november and he will be suited by the soft ground but 12 year old not so sleepy has posted a much better figure this season. i think iberico will run well and every chance he can improve enough to beat the rest of the field but i have zero interest in prices around the 10 mark. 

i'm going to end up backing zarak the brave in every market imaginable and doing the lot in because i can't fathom why this horse is more than double the price of iberico on the exchange and in basically every market. the mullins team clearly liked this horse because he went off 2.25 to beat supremely talented lossiemouth giving her 7lb in december 2022 and then tried to run her down off same weights at punchestown a year ago, beaten a length or so before winning a galway festival hurdle as a four year old off 145. that form is much better than winning a betfair off 134 as a six year old. something amiss the next day in tipperary but fairly hosed up four months later when back on the track giving 7lb to a decent enough horse in telmesomethinggirl. he might want ground a bit faster than this but shown a decent level in soft ground to think he'll run his race. 34-36 on the exchange, 7.5 without state man 1-3 places. this is a very talented horse and while he is running in a champion hurdle as a five year old and in a normal year he would likely be a touch out of his depth, this is a very poor renewal. footpad ran 4th in a much deeper champion as a five year old for these connections and look how good he turned out to be. 

nemean lion quickened nicely in the kingwell before getting a bit lonely in front and that was a much improved effort. some nice horses have won that race in the past before champion hurdling. funnily enough this horse went off a shorter price than iberico lord giving him a stone at cheltenham in november and is now 40+ here while iberico lord is 10s off level weights now. not sure that huge reversal is warranted given that one of them won a handicap off 134 and the other readily won a grade two. 

2:10 arkle

what a shit heap. jumps racing truly is dead if this is the best we have to offer in 2m novice chases. 3.75 fav gaelic warrior would be twos on if he didn't blow up the last day. just bet it and hope he doesn't lose 30 lengths jumping right handed. none of these get close as far as ability is concerned. raced in tacky, sticky ground in dublin on the second day of the festival so it was hard work and he got beat by a high class stayer that they think is gold cup bound over an extended 2m5f, not much shame in that and wasn't the only very smart horse that struggling in those conditions. market has started to move so suggests well being is fine. fresh, soft ground on a course that hasn't been used yet, would expect a much better and he's very clearly the best horse here having ran all over the second in two starts back. just going to take a deep breath and fucking punt because the questions he has to answer aren't worth as much as the market is suggesting in my shitty opinion.

il etait temps is a decent enough horse but he's been pumped every time he's seen a decent race horse (excl marine national who ran no race in dublin). beaten soundly by gaelic warrior in limerick, beaten soundly twice by facile vega, beaten soundly three times by vauban and beaten soundly by marine nationale last year. how is this horse possibly good enough to win an arkle? a concerning lack of depth in national hunt racing, that's how. same can be said for found a fifty and quilixios who got thunder cunted over 2m three times by a three miler in teahupoo. horrible race this. 

hunters yarn showed enough last time to think he could run a race but that one run was a stone better than anything he's ever shown before and he's inexperienced over the larger obstacle having raced only twice, falling at the first attempt and almost fell second time up too. looks a much better chase than hurdler and he is the danger if anything but form of that win is nothing special or even approaching. ran arguably worst race of his career at cheltenham last year and both chases have been right handed. some form at navan over hurdles which is always handy. 

jpr one the only one with half a squeak from the english. travels well through his races and the yard like him plenty but the form is dire and he has to improve a good 10lb to go and win this. 

1:30 supreme

tullyhill a big, strong, ground mashing galloper. willie mullins obviously exceptional at this whole training thing and choice of paul townend (is he the choice? mark walsh always going to ride the jp entry) but form is full of holes and won last two starts going a crawl with no competition for the lead, allowed to stop and start as he pleased. does not lack pace and should have required stamina but was tying up over 3m in a point and blew up over 2m6f on reappearance so some slight unanswered questions given the way the last two races were run for 1m4f. not too much natural pace in this race either but never going to be allowed to dictate a slow pace in a race of this nature - tellherthename most likely to take him on for the lead. ground a positive, race not that deep but price is tight enough based on unknowns. probably beats the piss out of them.

tough to have real strong form coming in to a race of this nature so no surprise that mystical power has not beaten too much either. some concern about ability to jump a hurdle after two sketchy outings but more clumsy then actually bad although that can get you in some trouble around cheltenham, hood on first time will help him concentrate, not ideal situation to be reaching for the headgear though. keen through two easy wins and should have a better pace to aim at but the move to quicken off a slow pace between horses as they turned for home at punchestown was very impressive so think there is a lot of ability there. some books going four places a 5th (standard is three, all sorts of money back offers floating too) including betfred who are still top price this lad at 4s, seems decent enough ew price and doesn't hurt that exchange is already shorter on the win part. there are some shit heaps running in behind here.

pretty obvious that slade steel is here just to avoid ballyburn and was flattered to finish as close to that one last time based on way the race was run with nothing in behind making up any ground, stamina coming in to play to hold off everything behind. nothing as good as ballyburn here of course but would need a real pace to be seen at best here and doubt that will be the case. proximity of a 17 race maiden in previous win over 2m says a lot about that form and slade's ability at this trip, ran on well to win 3m ptp so be surprised if he had required speed to win this. might pick a few off late. might surprise and push the pace knowing he needs a test but likely still to find at least one too good over this trip. would add at least two points to the 6.6 on the exchange win only. 

ballyburn improved a two stone from seasonal reappearance so don't care that firefox beat it one bit when already race fit. started life over 2m4f then was reverted to nh flats and ran in four including one to start the season? clearly this horse has taken a long time to find his feet so might not be quite as exposed as one may think, could still be improving but very disappointing effort in the closing stages over 2m4f last start when suppose to be a bit more of a stayer. probably in the best position turning for home and found nothing having drifted from 2.5 to bigger than 3 bsp. some ability but he's not a 6's poke to win a grade one of this nature over this trip.  

decent enough engine on jeriko du reponet and liked the form of the last win with lump sum posting a decent number in a g2 next start and nature of the two hurdles wins make it pretty tough to know how high the ceiling is. probably be better off a decent pace and versatile as far as ground goes but market wasn't confident the last day although duly dotted up but questions about how good they think he is and fuck me, nicky henderson could not be having a worse time of it and price on this has not moved all week so think we might see a drift on this tomorrow. many questions, probably just not as good as the irish on what he has shown but think he has more scope for improvement over this trip than a couple ahead of him in the market. no real interest in a henderson horse until a few have run though because he's only ran one horse in 10 days and it ran like a sack of shit.   

mistergif maybe good? not a clue. beat a horse that has been running for three years and never got close to seeing a winners enclosure with third another furlong behind. playing a guessing game. if it wins fair enough but i have zero clue how good he is or how good he could be. hurdles form in france is dogshit.