have some bets on facile vega at bigger prices from a week or two ago and the consensus seems to be that he will be better at 2m4f of which i'm not certain but it is definitely worth the try. i just think he's by far the most talented horse in this race and the irish form is superior to the english so while he does have wins on better ground, i'm still of the opinion that he will benefit from the softer ground than he has encountered the last twice. saying all of that, i'm happy with the price i got but i would absolutely not be touching him in this race at the current prices because his last two runs have been terrible but again, that's probably still better than the english form.
grey dawning has improved a significant amount for chasing this season and likely would have beaten ginny's destiny here in december if not for making a shuddering error two out before staying on again, now three pound better off i find it very tough to see how ginny's destiny can hold that form on ground that favours grey dawning a touch more than it does ginny's destiny. both improved a good few pound again in winning their next starts so it is reasonable to assume that ginny could have improved enough but that's a lot of faith to put in an eight year old.
iroko the obviously interesting runner. won the martin pipe last year and ran a strong staying third in the aintree g1 before bolting up on chasing debut. the horse he beat had won a g2 over hurdles in france and won a handicap off 135 over fences since but that form isn't all that strong in comparison to the front three and he has to improve a significant amount to win this but as a six year old with just one chase start it is expected that he will improve markedly in the near future. the market, however, does seem to be relatively cool on this horse after four months off the track. has been doing all his best work later in races over 2m4f and the g1 that he stayed on strongly in was over 3m so every chance he wants further than this so would likely need this to develop in to a bit of a test. better for him that this race is run on the new course.
i'm very interested in colonel harry in a couple of markets because i think at his best he has very little to find to fill a place here, especially if you can get 4/1ish in the four place market. he's coming off the back off a bad run in the scilly isles but that was a farce of a race the way it was run and it was on much faster ground than colonel harry wants. he's a 3m point winner (would be duel winner if not for a fall at the last when up seven lengths) and he stayed on strongly to win his g2 at wetherby in january so the stiffer new course should suit. the form isn't as good as some of these but the horse he beat quite nicely there was only beaten three lengths by ginny's destiny, in the race that grey dawning was chasing the winner down, on his previous start and ran up to the same mark behind colonel harry. he needs to improve but a stiffer track and softer ground will suit and i think it's well within his scope to improve enough, with everything in his favour, to sneak a minor place here.
letsbeclearaboutit has a fair run in him back at 2,4f after trying 2m and 3m the last twice, did win a g3 over this trip early in the season and was third in a g1 going off 5/4 so they certainly think he's good enough for this grade. fourth in the albart bartlett last year. doesn't have the upside of some of these and is nine now so minor places for him might be the best hge can hope for. sharjah just not as good of a chaser and easy to see why they waited until he was 10 to go over fences. zanahiyr is interesting, some champion hurdle form makes him competitive but his jimping has been scrappy at best; if he cleans up the errors he certainly has the ability to be involved. it's a very competitive race but outside of the top three, i think colonel harry has the most upside at this track, trip and ground. small bet at 40/1 each way the three, slightly bigger bet on the four place market at anywhere that I can get filled from 5.0 and above. worth noting how poorly the nicholls' horses are running, kind of gone under the radar with the whole henderson situation but his four runners have barely beaten a horse and stay away fay scoped dirty when he came back in yesterday so one of the 'big three' may well run below his level.
