4:10 mares

loussiemouth taking a tiny drift this morning and i can only assume that is because of the ground. we've known the trip for weeks and she's been strong enough in the market but the ground is going to come up softer than anything she has seen previously at least in a race as strong as this. g3 at fairyhouse on irish debut and maybe the race after at leopardstown but the ground rode on the good side of soft on the new course at cheltenham last year despite being officially soft and improvement has coincided with running on better ground over the last 14 months. we expect her to stay the trip based on runs in better ground but the question is whether she can do it in deeper ground. she looked like a star when she won in january. 

i think there are a lot of similar questions to be asked about ashroe diamond as well. she ran decent enough races in some novice g1s in 2022 behind marine nationale and facile vega but she only really beat horses she was expected to beat in both of those runs and a soft ground win over jetara may seem like okay form now but jetara improved two stone after a break when returning as a five year old. relatively good ground wins in a horrible g1 at fairyhouse which was basically a g3 and a g2 at doncaster when going off second fav behind gala marceau with the market was very much in the favour of the latter that day. no trip concerns if she handles the ground.

that race at doncaster is very interesting. gala marceau travelled smoothly but two things that you don't see in any reports and something you won't know without watching the race is that she got squeezed out of position just before the second last and lost a couple of lengths which she then had to try and make up but she switched legs right before the last and it was almost like she took a false step and that cost her a bit of forward momentum as well and never had much chance to chase ashroe down after that. ashroe was race fit that day and gala was not. you just have to ignore the last run if you want to back gala here today and that run was too bad to be true so that is something i'm willing to do because she was so good in auteuil at the back end of last year in deep ground. she's still only five and she has a very smart run at cheltenham in the triumph to her name. i would be interested in her in a few markets at current prices before they move. 

love envoi got blasted by lossiemouth last time out and tough to see her reverse that form but she does go well round here and the softer ground won't be any issue for her and neither will the trip so she can certainly go and get a bit closer with the first time cheekpieces. i'm going to end up with too much against ashroe diamond in the without market here but i think she's just much too short in this ground stepping up in class. this is a deep race too. betmgm have love envoi 13/8 best british versus marie's rock, you wear it well and theatre glory and that seems like a very decent way to punt love envoi as well as the w/o and each way stuff. fired too much on this race and will definitely regret it.