yesterday was a bit of a shit show. was good then it wasn't. betmgm had a horror show and were instantly manually accepting bets on stale lines all day because their whole site was fucked so you could get down decent amounts on prices that hadn't existed for 30 minutes and all were settled correctly. unfortunately that's because they almost all fucking lost. apple away was 9/4 joint fav top british in the 4 miler that's less than 4 miles now when on the exchange she was 7.6 to win the race and everything else in that market was bigger than 15 and nemean lion in the champion in same market was 7/2 while iberico lord was 11/10 but they were both 18.5 on the exchange at the time. ranges of outcomes and all that but they were just stale line that never got updated once throughout the day. site is fixed now so edge dead. rip. 

1:30 whatever this race is called now

ballyburn obvious fucking good, form franked, will hose up in a dog shit renewal of a shitty race. mullins has four of the six and the henderson thing simply can't win so will take a ben pauling miracle to take this away from willie. how has henderson decided to run this thing and not the others when he has said that he has no idea why they are running badly? 

ile atlantique was benefit of making the running last time despite mullins saying that wasn't the plan. don't really believe that because he was upside jumping the first and had made the running in each of his three runs prior but every winner on the card at naas that day was leading or very prominent except reading tommy wrong so does make me question how good ile atlantique actually is. won his maiden hurdle as you would expect but beaten every time he's been asked a question. talented enough and this is a shoddy race so probably chases ballyburn home but if they go and try to win the race, as they should, he could get beat by something up the hill for second when he gets tired. 

predators gold is a plodder. he should be in the 3m old boat race on friday. he was in line with dancing city jumping the second last in leopardstown but the winner easily quickened away before the last and it took predators gold forever to get going, finally getting past jetara of all horses. that horse would be 50s in here, form is poverty, track might help rather than flat leopardstown. form the day before behind caldwell potter cut up with fav and second fav bombing out in bottomless ground. i think he's a chance to finish second because he will stay well but he needs to improve a stone to trouble ballyburn. market starting to move towards him though. interesting. 

i think if you really want to bet this race then mercurey top 3 4/1 a touch of value. they really liked this horse early days when he bolted up in his bumper, beat in good ground by two nice horses the next day and got injured on hurdles debut. badly needed the run on return behind lisnagar fortune, the horse has form with reading tommy wrong who beat ile atlantique last time over a different trip though, but the way mercurey travelled in to the race was impressive but got very tired late and was beaten about eight lengths. won with head in chest on next start in a terrible race but if mullins is right and the plan for ile atlantique is not to make the running then this boy is likely to be the one to make it and i doubt there will be a contested lead if ile atlantique is not pushing forward. the english form is terrible and jimmy du seuil isn't much good so the places specifically looks very tidy. mercurey to beat handstands at 2/1 with betfred.