3:30 champion
state man obviously good and probably just wins. got 10lb in hand in an abysmal renewal. rock on ruby went off 11/1 as a 165 rated horse the year he won with 166 rated overturn a 20's poke and they're both half a stone better than the second horse here. iberico lord 10/1 third in having won a handicap off 134 last time is a fucking travesty.
irish point might be good, i mean he is good, but what the fuck is he doing in here? he was a shorter price for the 3m race later in the week and yeah, he's won at two but in a maiden and two shitty g3 races. he is definitely improving but it is plainly obvious that he improved 10 or so pound for an extra half last season and another half stone on anything he's achieved when upped to 3m the last day. sadly it is still the case that if he runs up to his grade three form he will actually be the one to follow state man home in something called the champion hurdle. grade three form finishing second in a champion hurdle with a 134 handicapper chasing them up the hill. the excitement is unbearable.
iberico rated 143 now and he would probably win off that mark as well but seriously, there has to be a racehorse somewhere that can beat this lad over 2m for some prize money? he won well at cheltenham off a coral cup bottom weight type mark in november and he will be suited by the soft ground but 12 year old not so sleepy has posted a much better figure this season. i think iberico will run well and every chance he can improve enough to beat the rest of the field but i have zero interest in prices around the 10 mark.
i'm going to end up backing zarak the brave in every market imaginable and doing the lot in because i can't fathom why this horse is more than double the price of iberico on the exchange and in basically every market. the mullins team clearly liked this horse because he went off 2.25 to beat supremely talented lossiemouth giving her 7lb in december 2022 and then tried to run her down off same weights at punchestown a year ago, beaten a length or so before winning a galway festival hurdle as a four year old off 145. that form is much better than winning a betfair off 134 as a six year old. something amiss the next day in tipperary but fairly hosed up four months later when back on the track giving 7lb to a decent enough horse in telmesomethinggirl. he might want ground a bit faster than this but shown a decent level in soft ground to think he'll run his race. 34-36 on the exchange, 7.5 without state man 1-3 places. this is a very talented horse and while he is running in a champion hurdle as a five year old and in a normal year he would likely be a touch out of his depth, this is a very poor renewal. footpad ran 4th in a much deeper champion as a five year old for these connections and look how good he turned out to be.
nemean lion quickened nicely in the kingwell before getting a bit lonely in front and that was a much improved effort. some nice horses have won that race in the past before champion hurdling. funnily enough this horse went off a shorter price than iberico lord giving him a stone at cheltenham in november and is now 40+ here while iberico lord is 10s off level weights now. not sure that huge reversal is warranted given that one of them won a handicap off 134 and the other readily won a grade two.
