2:10 brown advisory

fact to file very good too. bit more competitive this race though. looks every bit a gold cup horse of the future and i am annoyed i missed the 10/11 last night. slightly under 1.8 on exchange probably still fine but this is a decent enough little race. 

not at all convinced monty's star is even good, not sure why he is joint second in here after beating the biggest plodder in national hunt racing last time out. will enjoy the ground and stays so no real negatives i'm just not sure he has the ability. did bomb out at cheltenham in the plodders novice over three last year.

i'm of the opinion that we just don't know how good stay away fay actually is because of his running style. he reminds me of big bucks a touch in that he just does enough and stays forever. he won with stamina in both of his chasing wins to start the season then tried to jump out of novice company in a warm race last time out. he has made the running in most of his races the last year or so but with the real whacker and ahoy senor both in competition for the lead they didn't try to push the pace last time out and the race developed in to a bit of a sprint and he got out pointed by capodanno. strayed off a straight line up the straight but ran on again when straightened up and the cheek pieces should help there. there are no natural front runners in this race and given how much he needs this to be a real test of stamina, i would be surprised if they didn't go forward with him again today. not raced on ground this deep but it seems to be drying a shade and he does have form in soft. fact to file might be too good but i would make him a pretty clear fav in the without market and that isn't necessarily the case right now. 

american mike beat fact to file over shorter at start of the season and won over 3m last time but he got incredibly tired late that day and although the form is fine, i would be surprised if he were strong enough in the finish to beat some of these. he's a nice horse but i would much rather see him in something over 2m4f. sandor clegane doesn't look like much of a chase but he does have a bundle of stamina while giovinco probably wants a flatter track to get this trip in this ground.