5:40 hampton court

the sectional virgins will tell you kings gambit can't be beaten and he has been hammered all morning, now approaching 11/8 and that is starting to look short enough on his first try in graded company. he's a nice big colt that is certain to improve, he was very impressive on seasonal reappearance in a competitive handicap and he already has form with one of the other market principles in bracken's laugh having beaten that horse giving him 6lb but that was bracken's laugh's first career run and he has improved a significant amount himself since then.

he was arguably unlucky not to win at chester behind capulet who got first run on a course notorious for such things. he picked up smartly to try and run the o'brien horse down and lost nothing in defeat. he's been freshened up a bit since then but he looks a horse all about speed and i would prefer to see him dropped back in trip or at least on an easier course. 

the well fancied horse that day at chester was jayarebe and although he lost, it is pretty easy to see why. he is a strong, stridey, lengthy, relentless gallopy type rather than a horse who is ever going to enjoy chester and i am more than willing to give him another chance after routing a solid field at newmarket on his seasonal reappearance, running on very strongly once he met the rising ground, keeping on through the line. he's not drawn well here in 12 for a horse that likes to be up on the pace but that is priced in and i think he's undervalued at roughly 12 on the exchange or 9/1 each way first four. he soundly beat caviar heights that day and there is no real reason that form will be reversed and the likes of bellum justum and portland have shown their limitations in recent outings so i don't think they are big dangers if jayarebe is back to his gallopy best.

the interesting runner is first look. he only has a maiden win to his name but he ran second in a group one in france the last day. that form with ghostwriter and diego velazquez ties in with the likes of capulet, who beat bracken's laugh and al musmak here so we can roughly judge how good it was and the answer is meh, he's short here imo. he's unraced on ground anywhere near as fast as this and the track is going to be very different to anything he's seen previously. his form prior to the group one second is average at best and he is very flattered by his rating right now but he will likely have to run up to something like that to win here, which i don't think he is capable of. 

i'm fading the market in basically every race today. i am such a dumb cuck. 

4:25 gold cup

i'm not going to write much about this race. my bets are antepost and no one gives a fuck what prices i got two months ago but i've bet gregory and i'm still pretty keen on him. think even the 5/1 available is fine. he's going to relish this distance. if i was coming at this race with no previous position i would probably bet sweet william at 22/1. he's not genuine and he needs all of the help he can get from his jockey but he is immensely talented, stays the trip well and that's really all you can ask for from a 22/1 poke. he's very tough to win with and he looked like he didn't want to be on the race track at the start of the race he won the last day so there are many, many concerns but you won't find many horses with this amount of ability at 22/1 in any race this week. 

3:45 ribblesdale

much like the first race i don't think this is very deep. the lingfield oaks trial contested by you got to me, danielle and rubies are red was a bit of a mess and it didn't appear to work out too well in the oaks with you got to me weakening in to fourth beaten a fair way while rubies are red was out the back the whole race. she may not have loved that track and could be more at home on this more traditional, galloping track but she has a lot to prove now. danielle reportedly didn't love lingfield that day either but she was fairly tame in the finish that day and needs to have improved a lot to trouble the front two.

this is going to end up being the second race of the day that i am fading the early drift. all of the money has been for kalpana but i'm not too keen on that horse. she was a 76 rated handicapper two months ago and now she's second fav in one of the premier group races for three year old fillies. her win in newmarket was exceptional but she beaten soundly and fairly by friendly soul the last day and while it was still a good, strong run and she shaped as if this extra two furlongs would suit, it showed up some limitations in her ability and just not at all convinced she is this star horse that the market is certain she is. 

diamond rain has the best form on offer when beating two, maybe three, very nice horses at newbury on quick ground the last day. labelled as good but the times a bit later in the card would suggest the ground was drying out all the time in the bright sunshine. she travelled like the best horse in that race and picked up when asked to win comfortably and being out of a 1m4f winner there is every chance she improves again for this step up in trip. she's a lovely big, strong filly that should continue to get better with every run so i find it quite tough to see her not involved in this race. but the market doesn't love it and i'm probably just wrong. but i'm not. she's good. the rest are not. maybe. 3.05 right now, will likely drift some more and if she does we simply bet it again. 

drew a blank yesterday across five races. shortest price bet was 8/1 so no real damage done. that was a minefield of a card yesterday but the market did a fairly good job whereas i did not. three favourites won as well as well supported horses such as running lion winning too. market is king.  

2:30 norfolk 

whistlejacket is a big, thick sprinty type and he was much too fast for previous winner arizona blaze on second start. arizona blaze went and won next time out from camille pissarro who was strongly supported ahead of the coventry at the start of the week so both bits of form are likely quite strong with arizona blaze showing that he can perform on faster ground the last day, which we have not seen from whistlejacket but being a full brother to little big bear who won at this meeting on rattling ground, there is plenty of hope that whistlejacket will handle the ground just fine and i find it quite tough to see that curragh form being reversed having been rather dominant. arizona blaze's win the last day was up in trip over 6f and he stayed on well that day being out of a 1m2f winner and this drop back in trip doesn't seem entirely ideal. 

i don't think this is a particularly deep race for a royal ascot group two and i would be quite surprised if something outside of the top three in the market were to win here. i'm very keen on shareholder each way at 9/1 but the market has been against this horse quite a lot in the last 24 hours and i'm unsure why. he was as short as 6.5 yesterday and this morning he drifted out to over 13 on the exchange and at the time of writing he is trading at 12 and if all is well, that looks a very big price but there has to be some concern right now. a big, striking colt, he was slow away, keen and green on debut at beverley but he travelled like a dream, picked up nicely and battled all the way to the line against three horse who had all already won a race and i is very tough for me to think he will not have learned an enormous amount from that race, beating the reopposing moving force, now on 7lb worse terms for a short head win but the fahey two year olds have been electric this season and beating that horse on first course appearance can be upgraded significantly. i like this price and this horse a lot but the favourite could be very good and the weakness in the market has me a bit confused. 

aesterius was the other option for james doyle having won at bath on debut, quickened nicely late to put it bed but that form is nothing to shout about. there was a next time out winner but it came from the ed walker stable and his horses have been improving two stone for a run all year. the market has shown a bit of support for this horse over the last 24 hours which has to be of some interest but on what he shown on debut versus what shareholder and whistlejacket have shown, i can't get there for win purposes but as i said, this is not a deep race and he is open to plenty of improvement. 

4:25 prince of wales

good luck. auguste rodin could bolt up. inspiral could colt up. both could chuck it in. i think the market has priced them up relatively correctly and i don't want to be for or against either at current prices. there isn't too much pace in the race but snobbish is in here as a pace setter for blue rose cen so i would expect it to be decent enough and i'm not convinced inspiral stays. she cost me an absolute fortune when she beat warm heart on the line over this trip in MERICA! but flat, round track with short run in is very different to what she will face here but she is certainly good enough. happy to put a line through the last day. draw is meh but she's never going to be too close to the pace anyway. 

auguste is the pig of all pigs. he doesn't want 1m2f either. i think he is the worst price of the two but also the most likely winner. if he has the right attitude he goes well but he was also beaten comfortably the last day over this trip when he appeared to run genuinely enough. i have major concerns about him but also don't want to lay him at the same time. his issues are priced in more than enough. 

the rest is a minefield and i think you can nick some place value and there is some decent win upside with real questions to be answered about the two horses taking up the majority of he market share. horizon dove, blue rose cen and royal rhyme all have their best form on softer ground than this while alflaila has suffered some setbacks in her prep and will very likely come on a lot for this run. which leaves a couple of no hopers down the bottom and lord north. and lord north is the bet at 16/1 each way. he's eight now and recent ratings would suggest slightly declined from his peak but i'm not 100% sure about that. the form of his staying on third at sandown is very good now that charyn has hosed up in a good group one yesterday and he has very few doubts still remaining. he stays the trip, he's won at the course before, he goes well on the ground and he has an excellent jockey booking. i don't think he's one of the best three horses in the race if everything was to each horses liking but there are doubts surrounding every single runner in this race and i think he has the least serious questions to answer out of all runners. i don't think he's enormous value but i would bet him at 14/1, and i would maybe still bet him at 12/1 but at 16 (one unnamed dogshit book that talks a good game but doesn't stand on business was standout price 18/1 at royal ascot and refused to take more than £20), i think there is a small squeak of value. 

3:45 duke of cambridge

rogue millenium for £1.6m might be one of the worst purchases in the history of racing but probably should be the fav here although there is no chance whatsoever i would be backing this horse at 3/1. 2nd in a group one may well be the best form on offer but she also has a lot of form that wouldn't be good enough to win this. i also believe the 'luckless' run she got the last day on seasonal reappearance is being overplayed and over bet. there was a gap, repeatedly there was a gap and she simply wasn't good enough to go through it when first asked. there was a bit of bumping and she had to wait a little but i don't think she was good enough on the day and the price discrepancy between her and the winner is too big.

and that is where my bet in this race comes. ocean jewel was a real luckless runner in the group one at leopardstown behind rogue millenium last year when she was swinging away on the bridle as the race developed and she was making ground on rogue millenium but the latter got a clear run and ocean jewel did not, for around a furlong she was stuck behind horses before running on again late in midfield. she was many, many lengths better than that result. she looked like she had improved again from three to four when she travelled like the best horse in that race at the curragh and she quickened up to lead still hard on the bridle and when asked to go and win she did it with minimum fuss and very little riding from the jockey. she is 3lb worse off with rogue millenium for that run and now that this race is run on the round course the draw isn't very appealing but at 9 on the exchange, she is wildly overpriced with the market seemingly failing to understand how rapidly these fillies can improve, and that very much appears the case here. 

running lion is plenty short enough now having taken some money. was suppose to be a middle distance type, maybe even a derby type last year but that never materialised so they started dropping her back in trip. well supported at epsom back over a mile the last day and the racing post report will have you believe she was denied a clear run but that simply isn't true. there was a big gap up the rail and she took it but she wasn't fast enough to get through and she fell away without any real effort to maintain. maybe the course was partly to blame because she seemed to hang in to the rail a bit but i don't think she's quick enough to beat true milers and i'm not entirely sure she retains all of her ability either. best performances have come on slower ground. 

royal dress would be of huge interest with some rain having been without any luck the last day at epsom but all of her best form is on much softer ground. she is the most improved horse in this race and i do think she is good enough given the right circumstances. at 22 it doesn't cost much to find out whether her improvement will translate to this ground - career worst performance on fastest ground she tried - so i will have a bet at 22 because level of ability doesn't match the price but very obvious reason to think she won't run her race. 

3:05 queen's vase

are we sure illinois is even good? someone certainly thinks so because he's gone off a strong fav in each of his last three starts but he looks like a fucking donkey. he did stay on strongly off a fast pace that he set in lingfield the last day and the form looks very strong on paper given how well the winner ran in the derby but he was readily brushed aside that day with nothing else getting in to the race. he carried his head high, he lugged to his left on the fast ground, which he will see again here. i think there are enough question marks about this horse to not want to bet him at this sort of price against a couple of rapidly improving young stayers.

ryan moore has chosen to ride illinois over stablemates highbury and the equator, as well as grosvenor square before he was taken out but i am more than happy to fade the ryan moore decision. higbury drifted in the market and was strongly inconvenienced by a nothing pace on his debut when behind birdman, who runs again here, but once he found his feet he stayed on best of all over the mile and a half. he showed marked improvement the next day against the horse who separated himself and birdman on debut when reversing that form by eight lengths in a very comfortable win on fast ground, looking better and better the further he went, with the runner up winning a nice maiden on his next start to strengthen the form of both runs. birdman beat him for pace and again won through pace on his next start upped to 1m5f in another slowly run race and in a more stamina laden affair, i would expect to see highbury in a much better light. i wouldn't be desperate to fire away on this horse at 7/2ish though. 

mina rashid was all stamina when winning at chester on his last start and although that form is very poor, he was strongly supported late that day and showed a very willing attitude for a stable who's runners have been improving plenty for the run this year, especially those that came out early when the balding stable was struggling. the hood may have had a big impact on his improved form but the step up from a mile clearly suited too and he looks like a real staying type. chester can teach a young horse a lot and that is just another reason to think this horse can take another big step forward. he certainly does need to improve a bunch to trouble the market principles but in a race where i think the fav has a bad attitude and is poorly priced as a result, as well as there being a vulnerability about one of the next two in the market - birdman seeing out this race off a gallop as strong as he will have seen before - there is plenty of value in the place market with some real upside in the win part of an each bet at 16/1. 

2:30 queen mary

another juvenile guessing game. there will be a lot of talk about the draw and how horses can or can't win because of the draw bias but that is a bit of a myth. the only thing you need to know about the draw is where the speed is. the fastest horses traditionally wins the sprints and royal ascot regardless of draw. bradsell won low last year and the year before, big evs and crimson advocate won high and the year before little big bear won low on the same day that dramatised won high with nature strip won down the middle. you would be hard pushed to say that any of those horses isn't extremely speedy and extremely talented and the draw simply did not matter because they won from all over the track on relatively similar ground. 

that begs the question: who is the speediest filly in here? i don't have a fucking clue. i have an opinion on who the fastest finishing horse is but pace generally holds up, as it did with pretty much every horse i mentioned, so while i will be betting that horse i think racing style may be against her. that horse is truly enchanting at around the 8.6 mark on betfair right now. she took a while to get going on debut over an easy five at tipperary but the further they went the better she looked and her turn of foot once she knew her job was impressive. she wasn't necessarily fancied to get the job done that day having gone off third favourite but that looked a warm enough race based on the future entries of the horses and she readily put that race to bed. better ground and a stiffer track with a better pace to aim at and i would think we will see better from her but as i said, i am concerned about tracking positioning because i doubt she will be right up on the pace early. 

the richard hannon trained xanthe may well be the fastest of these and the race she won on debut is very solid form without being traditionally good. she was restless pre race and reluctant to load in to the stalls but when they came out she showed a lot of early pace before fighting on very gamely to beat two boys with course experience in reposado and the well fancied hallasan. she's not overly big but she was mentally juvenile and the way the race played out she will have learned a lot from that debut. this occasion is much bigger, however, and she certainly needs to have learned from that experience because if not then there is a chance that she could lose this before she gets on the track. that debut win came over this course and distance so there are no track concerns and coming back to a place she has seen before may help with the young attitude she possessed that day. there is a lot to like about her and at 30-32 range i am more than happy to take a chance.

miss rascal may have to make her own running from a very low draw and that is not ideal. she did win from the front on her second start but that was a small field and the time wasn't anything to shout about. the closing sectional on her debut coming from the back of the pack got a lot of people excited and she is likely better having a pace to aim at and while this type of race is run at a very strong gallop, there is every chance she gets stuck in a five or six horse group of horses drawn very low and not have that elite pace to aim at that would see her in the best light. 

i'm more than happy to be against kassaya. she looks like a nice horse but over further. this race is traditionally won by a pure sprinter and she didn't look like she had the necessary speed when winning on her second start having been readily picked up by point neuf on debut. don't think either bits of form are good enough to go and win this race. her best hope is that they go much too fast early and she can pick up the pieces but at this price i am more than happy to side step her. 

 4:25 st james palace

rosallion ew at 7/2 and pray you get the good variance. looked a special horse when picking up very smartly to win in ireland the last day and has fitness on his side now which he did not have against notable speech in the guineas and just got beat for a bit of speed on first run in 200 days. very impressive at this track as a two year old so we know he will handle the course. ground almost got away from him in the curragh with the rain earlier in the day. no such worries here. there are no question marks. the other horse may just be very, very good but now has less things in his favour. 

henry longfellow is a disgustingly short price. can win, maybe, but you are paying a ridiculous aidan o'brien premium for a horse who won some small field races as a juvenile. nothing went right in france the last day and you can put a line through it but these two horses are significantly better than anything in the field that day and i struggle to see henry longfellow winning this. if you're taking the 9/2 what the fuck are you thinking. this horse should be at least 8/1. probably a rocket ship and wins by half the track but i'm not paying that price to find out. 

3:45 kings stand

big evs has elite speed and showed his versatility when giving another horse the lead the last day and still pissed up in arguably a career best performance given circumstances. good luck catching him giving up 6lb. 

people will tell you he can't win because of how far he was beaten in his only start against older horses last year but there is a massive difference between a two year old racing against three and four year olds versus a three year old of his size and ability racing against older horses. the 24lb he received that day sounds like a lot, and it is, but two year olds having their fourth start are still very juvenile and unaware whereas the winner was a four year old having his 18th course start. that winner was down the field in very ordinary novice races as a two year old and the second, multiple group 1 winner highfield princess, she was beaten in a handicap off a ridiculously low mark of 57 on her fourth start as a juvenile. horses come a long, long way mentally and physically between two and three and the weight for age does an okay job at bridging that gap but cases of two year olds racing against older horses are rare enough that it is tough to measure. 

the sprinting division is and has been very weak in the UK for some time now and the fact that regional is second favourite says a lot. he's a nice horse and he's improved a decent amount over the last year or two but he's listed to group three quality generally and he shouldn't be beating a horse of true group one ability. the two favourites completely bombed out the day he won his group one, finished last and second to last and i think calling him a group one horse would be disingenuous. 

the australian horse is probably the biggest danger because despite patchy form on the face of things, that's going to happen in a much deeper division. the horse travelled like the best of them on UK debut but fell in a hole on soft ground on first run for 200 days. she will be much better today back on faster ground with fitness confirmed. the only concern here, and it's reflected in the market, is the different track. used to racing on flat, dull, nothing tracks in australia she will face an entirely different test at ascot and that could take her by surprise. 

believing was a benefit of seventeen front runners forcing an extremely unforgiving pace the last day when bolting up on first run over 5f and i would be surprised if he were to reproduce that 10 days later in a much better race. twilight calls was taken off her feet in a similarly blistering race on seasonal reappearance and arguably still should have won so she's a danger. decent each way bet at 11/1, 12/1. 

3:05 coventry

the guessiest of all guessing games. 11/2 the field of once raced two year olds. good fucking luck. cowardofthecountry is fav because he beat whistlejacket fairly comfortably on debut but that horse pretty clearly needed the run and or the drop in trip that he got on second career start when bolting up from a next time out winner. on paper the form is strong but entirely different circumstances are the reason that form looks excellent. could be good nonetheless and stayed the six furlongs strongly that day. big horse that will likely improve over time. paying a premium because of connections.

good battle between andesite and yah mo be there on debut with the latter looking incredibly green and juvenile so i'm a little surprised to see the former roughly half the price when one looked like they would improve much more for the run than the other. form of that race is as decent as you could hope it to have turned out having only been a month ago. both will have learned a lot from that and would expect both to be sharper for it. interesting line of form with the 5th from that race who ran behind another in here the next day.

the benefit of experience wasn't enough for proud to be fox when racing behind catalyse the last day and the winner was very impressive. he was quite professional, apart from an untidy start, and that is in line with how richard fahey has had his two year olds ready this season so i would not expect a bunch of improvement based on fitness but natural two year old improvement from race one to race two should be enough to see this horse involved in the race and i would be surprised if he wasn't. one of two i'm taking against the field at 11/1+.

the other is arran who is priced more in the 25-30 range and that looks ridiculous. a big, striking colt who was keen and green the last day but he strode out really well up the hill at newmarket having picked up quickly to put a couple of lengths between himself and the field. he was benefit of track position that day and they were closing on him late over 5f but he was never in any trouble and never asked a serious question. plenty of size and scope with this horse and interestingly two horses he beat on debut run again here, both of who won their next starts, and both are shorter in the market by 10+ points and for the life of me i can't work out why. arran had them readily covered the last day and with natural improvement i can't see any reason that he is wouldn't be able to do the same again. the draw is not ideal and he might find himself trapped on the outside without cover but that's not enough to warrant this sort of price. he looks like a lovely horse. 

catalyse could be a very smart horse and should be a fair bit closer to the head of the market while arran is overpriced and has plenty of scope to improve. don't sleep on rashabar at 50/1+. he's a maiden with an awful lot of ability. behind two very smart horses on debut before being drawn widest at chester on his second start. 

2:30 queen anne

big rock's career defining moment was in qe2 over course and distance but that form is close to 10lb better than anything else he's ever shown and questions should be asked of all jockeys in behind that day so i doubt that is big rock's true level of ability and i imagine that level of form is even less likely on fast ground but i do also think this is a much better horse on a nice straight galloping track rather than round a bend like he has been seeing in france. nothing went right at newbury the last day having been down on his nose coming out of the gates and with so much pace up front that day it was difficult to get back in to the race and maintain enough energy to be involved at the finish. stable form a concern and sheer number of horses that will force the pace will make life very difficult. 13/2 now and that is reasonable all things considered but not a number i'm willing to back.  

the win in dubai was improved form for facteur cheval and that level would be the best 'true' form on offer imo and given this horses consistency i agree he should be favourite but the peak of this horses ability is not high enough relative to others to think that he should be shorter than current price of 4/1ish. most likely winner, stays the trip really well and doubt he will be far away off a pace he will enjoy but embrace some variance in a tight enough race. much like most of the head of the market he may be a better horse on soft ground and this will be the fastest he will have seen. 

charyn another who is extremely consistent but also another that does enjoy some cut in the ground. i think this horse is nicely improved this year but he hasn't beaten anything of note and i do wonder whether his ratings flatter him a bit right now and i would suggest his price of around 4/1 certainly does. chasing home audience the last day is bad form and the fact that witch hunter ran on for third beyond the market principles tells you everything you need to know about the strength of that race. audience is improving at a good rate and she certainly showed a lot of speed the last day but the race fell apart and i would suggest she would need to improve again to post a good enough performance to win this race. 

more than happy to bet maljoom at 8/1 each way with four places at hills. yet to really find out whether this horses retains all of the ability that saw him finish a very unlucky fourth at royal ascot two years ago and has only raced twice since then but easy to forgive both of those runs. first one was after almost 500 days off the course and the second was in a five runner affair with no pace and he was forced to make the running having been heavily bet at post. he's a much better horse from the back of the field and he will love the way this race will be run. haggas horse having his second start of the season is a very likely big improver, he handles the ground will and although his draw is not ideal it shouldn't matter too much with given style of racing. if he's back to his three year old best on first run since that it is conceivable that he may be, he's no 10/1 poke here with absolutely nothing to find. 

docklands needs to improve on all known form but he's an elite handicapper and the jump from there to here is not as big as often suggested and this race will be run in the manner of a big field handicap so there is a chance of a surprise win for the horse running in his first group one. i wouldn't think this is a natural group horse in the general small field runnings of those type of races but circumstances are very different at this meeting.