3:45 duke of cambridge

rogue millenium for £1.6m might be one of the worst purchases in the history of racing but probably should be the fav here although there is no chance whatsoever i would be backing this horse at 3/1. 2nd in a group one may well be the best form on offer but she also has a lot of form that wouldn't be good enough to win this. i also believe the 'luckless' run she got the last day on seasonal reappearance is being overplayed and over bet. there was a gap, repeatedly there was a gap and she simply wasn't good enough to go through it when first asked. there was a bit of bumping and she had to wait a little but i don't think she was good enough on the day and the price discrepancy between her and the winner is too big.

and that is where my bet in this race comes. ocean jewel was a real luckless runner in the group one at leopardstown behind rogue millenium last year when she was swinging away on the bridle as the race developed and she was making ground on rogue millenium but the latter got a clear run and ocean jewel did not, for around a furlong she was stuck behind horses before running on again late in midfield. she was many, many lengths better than that result. she looked like she had improved again from three to four when she travelled like the best horse in that race at the curragh and she quickened up to lead still hard on the bridle and when asked to go and win she did it with minimum fuss and very little riding from the jockey. she is 3lb worse off with rogue millenium for that run and now that this race is run on the round course the draw isn't very appealing but at 9 on the exchange, she is wildly overpriced with the market seemingly failing to understand how rapidly these fillies can improve, and that very much appears the case here. 

running lion is plenty short enough now having taken some money. was suppose to be a middle distance type, maybe even a derby type last year but that never materialised so they started dropping her back in trip. well supported at epsom back over a mile the last day and the racing post report will have you believe she was denied a clear run but that simply isn't true. there was a big gap up the rail and she took it but she wasn't fast enough to get through and she fell away without any real effort to maintain. maybe the course was partly to blame because she seemed to hang in to the rail a bit but i don't think she's quick enough to beat true milers and i'm not entirely sure she retains all of her ability either. best performances have come on slower ground. 

royal dress would be of huge interest with some rain having been without any luck the last day at epsom but all of her best form is on much softer ground. she is the most improved horse in this race and i do think she is good enough given the right circumstances. at 22 it doesn't cost much to find out whether her improvement will translate to this ground - career worst performance on fastest ground she tried - so i will have a bet at 22 because level of ability doesn't match the price but very obvious reason to think she won't run her race.