3:05 queen's vase

are we sure illinois is even good? someone certainly thinks so because he's gone off a strong fav in each of his last three starts but he looks like a fucking donkey. he did stay on strongly off a fast pace that he set in lingfield the last day and the form looks very strong on paper given how well the winner ran in the derby but he was readily brushed aside that day with nothing else getting in to the race. he carried his head high, he lugged to his left on the fast ground, which he will see again here. i think there are enough question marks about this horse to not want to bet him at this sort of price against a couple of rapidly improving young stayers.

ryan moore has chosen to ride illinois over stablemates highbury and the equator, as well as grosvenor square before he was taken out but i am more than happy to fade the ryan moore decision. higbury drifted in the market and was strongly inconvenienced by a nothing pace on his debut when behind birdman, who runs again here, but once he found his feet he stayed on best of all over the mile and a half. he showed marked improvement the next day against the horse who separated himself and birdman on debut when reversing that form by eight lengths in a very comfortable win on fast ground, looking better and better the further he went, with the runner up winning a nice maiden on his next start to strengthen the form of both runs. birdman beat him for pace and again won through pace on his next start upped to 1m5f in another slowly run race and in a more stamina laden affair, i would expect to see highbury in a much better light. i wouldn't be desperate to fire away on this horse at 7/2ish though. 

mina rashid was all stamina when winning at chester on his last start and although that form is very poor, he was strongly supported late that day and showed a very willing attitude for a stable who's runners have been improving plenty for the run this year, especially those that came out early when the balding stable was struggling. the hood may have had a big impact on his improved form but the step up from a mile clearly suited too and he looks like a real staying type. chester can teach a young horse a lot and that is just another reason to think this horse can take another big step forward. he certainly does need to improve a bunch to trouble the market principles but in a race where i think the fav has a bad attitude and is poorly priced as a result, as well as there being a vulnerability about one of the next two in the market - birdman seeing out this race off a gallop as strong as he will have seen before - there is plenty of value in the place market with some real upside in the win part of an each bet at 16/1.