Thursday 20 June 2024

drew a blank yesterday across five races. shortest price bet was 8/1 so no real damage done. that was a minefield of a card yesterday but the market did a fairly good job whereas i did not. three favourites won as well as well supported horses such as running lion winning too. market is king.  


2:30 norfolk 


whistlejacket is a big, thick sprinty type and he was much too fast for previous winner arizona blaze on second start. arizona blaze went and won next time out from camille pissarro who was strongly supported ahead of the coventry at the start of the week so both bits of form are likely quite strong with arizona blaze showing that he can perform on faster ground the last day, which we have not seen from whistlejacket but being a full brother to little big bear who won at this meeting on rattling ground, there is plenty of hope that whistlejacket will handle the ground just fine and i find it quite tough to see that curragh form being reversed having been rather dominant. arizona blaze's win the last day was up in trip over 6f and he stayed on well that day being out of a 1m2f winner and this drop back in trip doesn't seem entirely ideal. 

i don't think this is a particularly deep race for a royal ascot group two and i would be quite surprised if something outside of the top three in the market were to win here. i'm very keen on shareholder each way at 9/1 but the market has been against this horse quite a lot in the last 24 hours and i'm unsure why. he was as short as 6.5 yesterday and this morning he drifted out to over 13 on the exchange and at the time of writing he is trading at 12 and if all is well, that looks a very big price but there has to be some concern right now. a big, striking colt, he was slow away, keen and green on debut at beverley but he travelled like a dream, picked up nicely and battled all the way to the line against three horse who had all already won a race and i is very tough for me to think he will not have learned an enormous amount from that race, beating the reopposing moving force, now on 7lb worse terms for a short head win but the fahey two year olds have been electric this season and beating that horse on first course appearance can be upgraded significantly. i like this price and this horse a lot but the favourite could be very good and the weakness in the market has me a bit confused. 

aesterius was the other option for james doyle having won at bath on debut, quickened nicely late to put it bed but that form is nothing to shout about. there was a next time out winner but it came from the ed walker stable and his horses have been improving two stone for a run all year. the market has shown a bit of support for this horse over the last 24 hours which has to be of some interest but on what he shown on debut versus what shareholder and whistlejacket have shown, i can't get there for win purposes but as i said, this is not a deep race and he is open to plenty of improvement.