3:45 kings stand

big evs has elite speed and showed his versatility when giving another horse the lead the last day and still pissed up in arguably a career best performance given circumstances. good luck catching him giving up 6lb. 

people will tell you he can't win because of how far he was beaten in his only start against older horses last year but there is a massive difference between a two year old racing against three and four year olds versus a three year old of his size and ability racing against older horses. the 24lb he received that day sounds like a lot, and it is, but two year olds having their fourth start are still very juvenile and unaware whereas the winner was a four year old having his 18th course start. that winner was down the field in very ordinary novice races as a two year old and the second, multiple group 1 winner highfield princess, she was beaten in a handicap off a ridiculously low mark of 57 on her fourth start as a juvenile. horses come a long, long way mentally and physically between two and three and the weight for age does an okay job at bridging that gap but cases of two year olds racing against older horses are rare enough that it is tough to measure. 

the sprinting division is and has been very weak in the UK for some time now and the fact that regional is second favourite says a lot. he's a nice horse and he's improved a decent amount over the last year or two but he's listed to group three quality generally and he shouldn't be beating a horse of true group one ability. the two favourites completely bombed out the day he won his group one, finished last and second to last and i think calling him a group one horse would be disingenuous. 

the australian horse is probably the biggest danger because despite patchy form on the face of things, that's going to happen in a much deeper division. the horse travelled like the best of them on UK debut but fell in a hole on soft ground on first run for 200 days. she will be much better today back on faster ground with fitness confirmed. the only concern here, and it's reflected in the market, is the different track. used to racing on flat, dull, nothing tracks in australia she will face an entirely different test at ascot and that could take her by surprise. 

believing was a benefit of seventeen front runners forcing an extremely unforgiving pace the last day when bolting up on first run over 5f and i would be surprised if he were to reproduce that 10 days later in a much better race. twilight calls was taken off her feet in a similarly blistering race on seasonal reappearance and arguably still should have won so she's a danger. decent each way bet at 11/1, 12/1.