2:30 queen mary

another juvenile guessing game. there will be a lot of talk about the draw and how horses can or can't win because of the draw bias but that is a bit of a myth. the only thing you need to know about the draw is where the speed is. the fastest horses traditionally wins the sprints and royal ascot regardless of draw. bradsell won low last year and the year before, big evs and crimson advocate won high and the year before little big bear won low on the same day that dramatised won high with nature strip won down the middle. you would be hard pushed to say that any of those horses isn't extremely speedy and extremely talented and the draw simply did not matter because they won from all over the track on relatively similar ground. 

that begs the question: who is the speediest filly in here? i don't have a fucking clue. i have an opinion on who the fastest finishing horse is but pace generally holds up, as it did with pretty much every horse i mentioned, so while i will be betting that horse i think racing style may be against her. that horse is truly enchanting at around the 8.6 mark on betfair right now. she took a while to get going on debut over an easy five at tipperary but the further they went the better she looked and her turn of foot once she knew her job was impressive. she wasn't necessarily fancied to get the job done that day having gone off third favourite but that looked a warm enough race based on the future entries of the horses and she readily put that race to bed. better ground and a stiffer track with a better pace to aim at and i would think we will see better from her but as i said, i am concerned about tracking positioning because i doubt she will be right up on the pace early. 

the richard hannon trained xanthe may well be the fastest of these and the race she won on debut is very solid form without being traditionally good. she was restless pre race and reluctant to load in to the stalls but when they came out she showed a lot of early pace before fighting on very gamely to beat two boys with course experience in reposado and the well fancied hallasan. she's not overly big but she was mentally juvenile and the way the race played out she will have learned a lot from that debut. this occasion is much bigger, however, and she certainly needs to have learned from that experience because if not then there is a chance that she could lose this before she gets on the track. that debut win came over this course and distance so there are no track concerns and coming back to a place she has seen before may help with the young attitude she possessed that day. there is a lot to like about her and at 30-32 range i am more than happy to take a chance.

miss rascal may have to make her own running from a very low draw and that is not ideal. she did win from the front on her second start but that was a small field and the time wasn't anything to shout about. the closing sectional on her debut coming from the back of the pack got a lot of people excited and she is likely better having a pace to aim at and while this type of race is run at a very strong gallop, there is every chance she gets stuck in a five or six horse group of horses drawn very low and not have that elite pace to aim at that would see her in the best light. 

i'm more than happy to be against kassaya. she looks like a nice horse but over further. this race is traditionally won by a pure sprinter and she didn't look like she had the necessary speed when winning on her second start having been readily picked up by point neuf on debut. don't think either bits of form are good enough to go and win this race. her best hope is that they go much too fast early and she can pick up the pieces but at this price i am more than happy to side step her.