4:25 prince of wales

good luck. auguste rodin could bolt up. inspiral could colt up. both could chuck it in. i think the market has priced them up relatively correctly and i don't want to be for or against either at current prices. there isn't too much pace in the race but snobbish is in here as a pace setter for blue rose cen so i would expect it to be decent enough and i'm not convinced inspiral stays. she cost me an absolute fortune when she beat warm heart on the line over this trip in MERICA! but flat, round track with short run in is very different to what she will face here but she is certainly good enough. happy to put a line through the last day. draw is meh but she's never going to be too close to the pace anyway. 

auguste is the pig of all pigs. he doesn't want 1m2f either. i think he is the worst price of the two but also the most likely winner. if he has the right attitude he goes well but he was also beaten comfortably the last day over this trip when he appeared to run genuinely enough. i have major concerns about him but also don't want to lay him at the same time. his issues are priced in more than enough. 

the rest is a minefield and i think you can nick some place value and there is some decent win upside with real questions to be answered about the two horses taking up the majority of he market share. horizon dove, blue rose cen and royal rhyme all have their best form on softer ground than this while alflaila has suffered some setbacks in her prep and will very likely come on a lot for this run. which leaves a couple of no hopers down the bottom and lord north. and lord north is the bet at 16/1 each way. he's eight now and recent ratings would suggest slightly declined from his peak but i'm not 100% sure about that. the form of his staying on third at sandown is very good now that charyn has hosed up in a good group one yesterday and he has very few doubts still remaining. he stays the trip, he's won at the course before, he goes well on the ground and he has an excellent jockey booking. i don't think he's one of the best three horses in the race if everything was to each horses liking but there are doubts surrounding every single runner in this race and i think he has the least serious questions to answer out of all runners. i don't think he's enormous value but i would bet him at 14/1, and i would maybe still bet him at 12/1 but at 16 (one unnamed dogshit book that talks a good game but doesn't stand on business was standout price 18/1 at royal ascot and refused to take more than £20), i think there is a small squeak of value.