big rock's career defining moment was in qe2 over course and distance but that form is close to 10lb better than anything else he's ever shown and questions should be asked of all jockeys in behind that day so i doubt that is big rock's true level of ability and i imagine that level of form is even less likely on fast ground but i do also think this is a much better horse on a nice straight galloping track rather than round a bend like he has been seeing in france. nothing went right at newbury the last day having been down on his nose coming out of the gates and with so much pace up front that day it was difficult to get back in to the race and maintain enough energy to be involved at the finish. stable form a concern and sheer number of horses that will force the pace will make life very difficult. 13/2 now and that is reasonable all things considered but not a number i'm willing to back.
the win in dubai was improved form for facteur cheval and that level would be the best 'true' form on offer imo and given this horses consistency i agree he should be favourite but the peak of this horses ability is not high enough relative to others to think that he should be shorter than current price of 4/1ish. most likely winner, stays the trip really well and doubt he will be far away off a pace he will enjoy but embrace some variance in a tight enough race. much like most of the head of the market he may be a better horse on soft ground and this will be the fastest he will have seen.
charyn another who is extremely consistent but also another that does enjoy some cut in the ground. i think this horse is nicely improved this year but he hasn't beaten anything of note and i do wonder whether his ratings flatter him a bit right now and i would suggest his price of around 4/1 certainly does. chasing home audience the last day is bad form and the fact that witch hunter ran on for third beyond the market principles tells you everything you need to know about the strength of that race. audience is improving at a good rate and she certainly showed a lot of speed the last day but the race fell apart and i would suggest she would need to improve again to post a good enough performance to win this race.
more than happy to bet maljoom at 8/1 each way with four places at hills. yet to really find out whether this horses retains all of the ability that saw him finish a very unlucky fourth at royal ascot two years ago and has only raced twice since then but easy to forgive both of those runs. first one was after almost 500 days off the course and the second was in a five runner affair with no pace and he was forced to make the running having been heavily bet at post. he's a much better horse from the back of the field and he will love the way this race will be run. haggas horse having his second start of the season is a very likely big improver, he handles the ground will and although his draw is not ideal it shouldn't matter too much with given style of racing. if he's back to his three year old best on first run since that it is conceivable that he may be, he's no 10/1 poke here with absolutely nothing to find.
docklands needs to improve on all known form but he's an elite handicapper and the jump from there to here is not as big as often suggested and this race will be run in the manner of a big field handicap so there is a chance of a surprise win for the horse running in his first group one. i wouldn't think this is a natural group horse in the general small field runnings of those type of races but circumstances are very different at this meeting.
