day two much less profitable, +0.77u betting to win 1u on each. +4.14 for the event. day three is a shit show, enormous fields and very competitive racing throughout the day. relying on the good variance to make money today even if the bets are good.

mares' novices

sixandahalf obviously an impressive winner on hurdles debut the last day but i'm not entirely convinced by that run. was well supported close to the off and won as she liked but it was a bit of a nothing race with five horses well clear throughout despite a relatively sedate pace and the one flat bred horse unsurprisingly had the most speed up the straight, wasn't in love with the way she pulled clear either, it was a bit laboured with the second horse clearly slowing down at a significant rate to make the winning margin a bit wider. everything that has run since has lost in bad races and i could not possibly by getting involved with this horse as a favourite. she's obviously open to bundles of improvement on only her second hurdles start but this is a 24 runner race full of more experienced horses and this is going to be completely different test because while she won a 14 runner race that day there was only ever a small group clear and it wouldn't have felt like a big field. big field experience on the flat not quite the same as big field experience jumping hurdles at a good pace. a lot of doubts but based on flat ability she is clearly talented. 

also going to be against the other flat horse here in galileo dame. two very solid runs over hurdles, once when beaten by wendrock and once when 2nd in a g1, reversing form with wendrock, but has never raced outside of her own age group over jumps and her jumping is sketchy at best. she is getting weight from all, she stays strongly and on paper she has posted one of the best bits of form but i can't get there at the prices because i think the market is undervaluing how tough it can be for a four year old against older horses on a stiff track like this. 

jubilee alpha has been impressive in her recent starts and she looked up to this level when flying home after some trouble in a g2 at aintree in a bumper at the back end of last year behind the reopposing diva luna - likely improved past that one - but i'm concerned about her on this track. has never raced on anything other than a sharp, flat track and she has been cantering through races and winning through pure speed. this kind of thinking lead me to move away from the new lion earlier in the week so potentially just think too little of strong form on flat tracks but she's not the biggest horse so i'm fine with passing her over against some talented stronger horses with more scope for improvement. 

the first of two i've taken here is karoline banbou at 13/13.5, would bet that down to about 8 so a fairly strong bet, because i loved the way she made up ground around the top bend on her irish debut. she did nothing wrong on her second start when winning a weak race in a canter but the way she quickened very smartly in to the lead that first day in a good race before getting tired after was that of an extremely smart horse. her french form as a 3yo gives her the experience necessary to navigate a race of this nature. think she's a really smart mare. 

i give credit to sbc_josh on the bird app for pointing her out to me last night at bigger prices but bluey is still worth betting at 20/1+ here. she's a lovely, big, strapping mare that has taken plenty of time and racing to come good but she's improving quickly now and will be well suited to more of a galloping test than she has encountered recently, including when behind jubilee alpha on 3lb worse terms. on the face of it you would think that form is going to be tough to reverse but given how big and slow to develop she has been as well as the vastly different track i think there is every reason to believe she has a good chance to improve beyond that one now. karoline the much bigger bet but i do think bluey is a very fair price.