ryanair

competitive. i don't think fact to file is anywhere near as good over 2m4f as he is over 3m and there is enough very strong opposition to be against at shorter than 2/1, have laid at 2.76 for a small bit. think the way he does win this is likely to play out which is why only a small lay because the tactical approach to this race is fairly well known. they're going to blast off and he could just be the one that outstays them up the hill but if they go quick enough i wouldn't be surprised to see him get taken off his feet a little here. winning the john durkan over 2m4f would give people plenty of hope about his speed but he raced against a bunch of 3 mile chasers all running over the wrong trip when most hadn't had a run in 250 days that day and i don't believe he is worthy of this price at this trip. 

jungle boogie and protektorat are better horses racing from the front, especially the former, and while i don't think it's necessarily certain that one or both will put pressure on il est francais, i think they will be doing enough just in behind to keep the leader honest and keep this pace high - not that the french horse needs the encouragement - so this should be run end to end throughout. i'm happy to be against il est francias racing at this speed on this track having only raced around the flat kempton, which makes fencing a touch easier, and over the smaller, easier fences in france. wouldn't be surprised to see him fall at a fence coming down the hill. the mental adjustment to bigger, stiffer fences at greater speeds isn't to be underestimated and for such an assured jumper normally, likely to see a mistake or two creeping in under pressure. 

i would have been all over djelo at the 11 that was available early morning and overnight and the exchanges were liquid enough to get down but i didn't start my prep until later in the morning and by that time he was already under 9 on the exchange which i think is approaching the correct price although maybe still a little light, so a small bet but nothing fancy. the main bet will be on heart wood at 20 now. lovely seven year old, improving all the time but he's kind of between trips so never gets to showcase how good he is. he got outpaced before staying on strongly over 2m4f two starts back and he cantered through a g1 over 3m the last day only to not get home so i think a stiff 2m4f on the new course in a well run race is going to be the most suitable race he's been a part of to date and we can finally see how good this horse really is. he travelled supremely well the last day when behind fact to file but he was bang there with him jumping two out before stamina really kicked in over the last few furlongs. doubt he wins because as i say, this is a really solid g1, but he's worth his chance and i think there is plenty of improvement to come with things in his favour. 16/1 ew nice, 20 exchange nice too.