champion hurdle

i'm betting state man, fully expecting to lose. i think the market is disrespectful of his chances at 13/13.5. he went off odds on the beat brighterdaysahead twice and while he got beat both times, there were valid excuses both times. it's very easy to forgot how easily state man got to her the first time when she was race fit and he wasn't because of how visually impressive the mare was when beating him out of sight the next day but state man made a mess of the last the first day at a time when mullins' horses weren't finishing their races and he got himself beat that day. he was very, very clearly the best horse that day and i don't think that is disputable. the race after which BDA went and won in a canter was a fucking farce and we're judging both horses largely based upon that comical race. it's the only time brighterdaysahead has looked even remotely as good as gordon elliott has always said she is and i am baffled that the market is so adamant that that race is their true level. i don't expect to beat CH, and BDA may well be the horse they always thought she was but this price discrepancy is ridiculous.

constitution hills probably wins and nothing else will matter. i don't have a clue how good that horse is anymore, wasn't impressed by him in either of his two runs this year. the less said about these racecourse gallops the better. price is quite enticing but that's mostly just because i think BDA is a horrific price.