arkle

majborough could just be a stone better than these. always looked a chaser, huge engine, hard to beat. but he's young and inexperienced and he's unlikely to have things go his own way like he had in dublin. it was an incredibly impressive performance, beating some well established high class 2m chasers on only his second start as a novice but everything went smoothly and as planned. there were a couple of novicey jumps, continuing to jump left handed as he has throughout his young career but nothing you would be overly concerned about. i want to be against him because he's so young and inexperienced given how differently things have the potential to play out in the race. i certainly believe he is the best horse and i wouldn't be at all surprised if he wins this by 10 on the bridle but there are too many small concerns for me to be getting involved at 1.6x. he's racing against at least two horses that have worse form/ability but are very polished, quick jumpers and that is the way he gets beat. 

i'm not at all impressed with leau du sud. think he's quite exposed for a novice chaser and although the form of his last win reads well enough i thought he looked fairly average the last two starts. beating the two irish horses at sandown was decent but down memory lane hates soft ground and lds looked very laboured and slow coming up that hill - conditions weren't easy, granted, but it was a concerning performance. he didn't do much to inspire the next day as a 1/5 poke either. second has come out and won a g2 of his own in similar dogged fashion since but i am of the opinion that the market is overrating that form somewhat. the ground is starting to come softer than expected and personally i think this 5/1 would be just about correct on good ground but not correct on this likely slower surface.

jango baie very quietly posted one of the best novice chasing debuts of the season when cruising home at cheltenham and jumped beautifully when just touched of by the front running handstands the next day. that type of form isn't going to beat majborough at his best but i loved the way jango travelled through that race and that gives me real confidence this trip over this track will really suit. i would have him as second fav, basically just flipping the prices with l'eau du sud, so it's a pretty easy bet here at 8/1 (although expecting to lose) but the better bet is the 9/4 without majborough. pretty strongly feel he's the second best horse here.