xc

pretty tough to find an edge here imo. they all race against each other all the time. stumptown has improved significantly in the last year and obviously the only time i got a bet on him he got slammed in to by a loose horse and unseated. he did it cosily the last day but the small suspicion i have is that he doesn't want to be in front too early so while an 8lb rise might not look too steep on the face of it, i do think it is more than enough to pass him over here. mister coffey, who i bet in that race, flashed ability without winning for the 374th time and he's taken money through the day and is now at a point where i don't want to chase him off the cliff but he's not without hope. he got outpaced at the top of the hill the last day when the front three kicked for home and if he can stay in touch he'll be coming home faster than many.

galvin is a nice type, he's ran well in this and the grand national previously but he's getting on a fair bit now but he's only racing sporadically these days in anticipation of these 'big' races. he looks fairly treated on his best form and he doesn't have to carry top weight with stumptown's improvement so there is a lot in his favour but he's priced roughly correctly imo. think he's a better horse on good ground though so every chance. 

if there is anything that could improve here it's the goffer and i have bet him at 11/11.5. he's still only eight but he's struggled for a couple of years now and he has a tendency to give it up but his mark has adjusted quite impactfully as a result. he didn't do much to encourage a big result here when staying on behind stumptown but that was the first time he's ever seen a course like this and he was planted out the back the whole way which didn't give him much hope. this is the type of horse that sean bowen does a masterful job with so his booking is a big positive. i don't think it's a big edge, he's the type of horse that could be running without a chance after a mile but he's extremely well treated, carrying no weight and has the perfect jockey on board.