stayers

messy race this, wide open. i like teahupoo but price is fine, some unexposed young stayers in here that hold his price up, ground not quite as soft as he may like though so i'm fine with being against him despite thinking something has to improve a good 10lb to go and beat him. those young stayers include the wallpark who looks a lovely big staying hurdler and certainly looks the most likely danger having proved himself over the trip, track and ground but i was very disappointed with his run in the long walk at ascot, got outpaced and ran on but that was his first try in this grade and he looked in trouble a long way out in a much weaker race than this. he's certainly improving and can make his presence felt in a real stamina test but whether he has the class to go and win this i'm not entirely certain so price is tight enough for me.

the other younger horse with a good chance is lucky place. not proven over this trip but stayed on strongly in both the coral cup over 2m5f when very young as a novice here last year - an incredibly good performance - and in a 2m4f win here in december so there is hope that he will stay. he held off the rallying gowel road the last day giving 6lb and now on level weights it is tough to see gowel road reversing that form but that is the horse i am betting at 25/1 ew, some 28 out there too. he's a thorough, thorough stayer and that 2m4f wouldn't have suited him as much as this will. he's nine now but he seems to have improved a good bit this season now that he's racing exclusively from the front and that should be the tactics today in a race that lacks any real early pace so he has a very fair chance to get a soft enough lead here. he's a very tough horse to pass and there are a lot of question marks about the ability of a lot of these.