ultima

tactically speaking it's pretty straight forward. it's a 24 runner handicap. there are plenty of established front runners and they will go a decent pace. there is a concern with a couple of those front runners though because both broadway boy and king turgeon both sulked their way through races recently when they couldn't establish an early lead and we might well see a situation here where both fight for the lead early and they go a silly gallop with the likes of myretown also very likely to be pushing forward, this could be badger ales levels of pacey staying chase and somewhat surprisingly that day the pace help up but this is a much stiffer track with a much stiffer jumping test. 

not quite hunt ball levels of improvement from katate dori this season but quickly rising up the ranks. another 12lb to contend with here before dylan johnston takes off three. racing style should be quite well suited by race tactics but while i don't think the 12lb rise necessarily gets to the bottom of his ability, i don't think he's the best jumper and jumping is going to be put under pressure at this pace and that's where the added weight is going to tell. comes quick enough after previous win.

the changing man is improving but ideally wants faster ground. i've always thought of him as a relatively weak finisher but counterintuitively i do believe the way this race will be run will help him get up the hill because i think it's more a lack of gear changes that made him vulnerable so a 3m1f well run race should suit. he's still clearly on a mark he can win off and he's one who should be well positioned throughout to pick off the potential lightening pace so if we get through the first race and the ground isn't too soft, i'll likely be having a second bet on him at ~10 on exchange. i have very few questions about this one.

the one i like a fair bit here is whistle stop tour at 15ish on exchange. he's a bit inexperienced compared to a lot of these but he's improving markedly over 3m on the northern circuit which can go quite unnoticed when it comes to the bigger meetings. obviously the level of competition is lower but it can be tough to compare the form given there is relatively little cross over through the year. he ran a very creditable race when running over 2m4f off a big weight in a very competitive novice chase. he got outpaced in a race where the pace held up but he stayed on all the way to the line and jumped beautifully the whole way, suggesting there was still plenty left in the tank except the pace to be involved. he's up 6lb for staying on strongly to win in ayr the time before and that almost certainly doesn't cover his vast potential carrying a nice low weight of 10-12. the ground coming up a bit softer will suit him but form on slightly faster ground not much of a concern either.