mares

the race revolves around the well being of lossiemouth. i would have preferred to have seen her in the champion because i think she was judged too harshly on getting beat by constitution hill on his reappearance when she was clearly not at her best as soon as the flag dropped, maybe she was caught out by the championship pace over 2m but that was a flat, quick track on good ground which is incomparable to what she would have been facing today. the reason she has moved, in my opinions of course, is that the fall the next day took a lot out of her and they were not confident she would be as competitive as she would be at her best. and that concern rolls over in to this market because she's way too big at 1.9x but the fact that she is obviously too big gives me great concern that she is probably much too short because of her current level of well being and while i don't really want to be, i have to be against her.

it's a knock along concern that they have sent lossie here to a race they believe she could still win when the stable have the 2nd fav who would have been a relatively short price if lossie didn't come here. jade de grugy is a horse i've never loved, she is workmanlike and while she bumped in to a couple of obviously good horses in this race last year, the major concern for me is that this is probably a 3m horse racing down in trip because the division at 3m doesn't really exist for mares and she simply isn't good enough to be competitive against the boys. i can't have her here at this price but anything could happen with the real concerns about the big favourite.

i'm very keen to be on july flower at ~10. she was mightily impressive the last day after 260 or so days off the track when cruising by kala conti and i would expect her to improve a fair bit for that run. the henry de bromhead stable was out of form for a while but july flower was kept of the track through that period but that doesn't mean she wasn't impacted by any issues within the stable so it is a slight concern that she hasn't been out for 72 days. despite that concern, i would have her as clear second fav here and much like jango baie it's another no brainer losing bet at 10. 

joyeuse the most interesting runner. cantered home in a competitive newbury handicap, supplemented for this and the way the race shape has unfolded she is very much coming here with a chance. market has been a little cold on her this morning and she has a fair bit to find at the ratings but she is a live one.