Friday, 14 March 2025

mares chase


have bet dinoblue here at 2.6 and 13/8, actually thought this was quite a good bet but having spoke to a few people since it seems i'm on a bit of an island which is never great but if they're willing to push her out closer to post i am willing to bet her again. she's not a horse i like at all because generally think she is over bet for what she has done on a race course but she is by far the most consistent of these and i strongly believe her peak is a few pound better than them as well. i had her in here at closer to 5/4 so i'm surprised there is not much interest in her. it's probably because she's been beaten at short enough prices three times at the festival but she was quite unlucky last year imo because limerick lace got first run in tough conditions getting 5lb with dino blue closing her down all the way to the line. she didn't do too much in two runs against the boys to start the year but she won nice enough against stablemate allegorie de vassy at naas over 2m giving 6lb (5lb today) and while she arguably had the better of the ground away from the rail i thought she was always in command there running without the help of a rail to guide. 

allegorie de vassy reopposes here on slightly worse terms but i'm not sure that horse is the same horse at cheltenham. she was never involved in this race last year as a well supported 5/2 chance and she was comfortably beaten as a short price fav the year before. the reports suggest she is stronger this year which could help her round this track but she has plenty to prove here. limerick lace much the same, she was a good enough winner last year but she had everything go her way, including the heavy ground which she won't get again, hasn't been the same horse this year and is 3lb worse off. cheek pieces on first time could help find a bit of form but she has a lot to prove now. 

brides hill has put up some exceptional performances at a relatively mild level and i think she's short enough. she beat allegorie de vassy easily last year but that one clearly was off her game and this one should need to improve a fair bit to go and win this.